New Doomsday poll: 98% risk of 2014 stock crash – MarketWatch 06-29-13

Salient to Investors:

Paul B. Farrell writes:

  • 2014 is a virtually guaranteed disaster just waiting to ignite. Bubbles are everywhere.
  • Kit Juckes at Societe Generale says all three worldwide financial bubbles in the last three decades – The Asian Bubble in the early ‘90s, Dot-com Bubble of the late ‘90s and the Credit Bubble that triggered the 2008 Wall Street meltdown – were fueled by the Fed keeping policy rates below the nominal growth rate of the economy for far too long. Juckes says we are trapped in the fourth megabubble fueled by the Fed in the last 30 years.
  • Marc Faber says QE will be part of everyday life for the rest of our lives.
  • Mark Gongloff at Huffington Post said the dramatic downgrade of US growth in Q1 revealed the economy’s lingering weakness, exposed Washington’s austerity obsession, and ridicules the Fed’s newfound optimism.
  • GoldSeek.com says many cycles indicate a stock-market correction or crash is near, with the precious-metals crash which started in April 2013 being the first warning.
  • Bill Gross at Pimco says QE must end as trillions of cheap money has distorted incentives and inflated asset prices to artificial levels.
  • We are in the 5th year of a typical 4-year bull rally – William O’Neill at IBD says market cycles average 3.75 years up, 9 months down.
  • The war in Congress will get worse, upsetting markets and the economy even more. Viz anger after the Supreme Court’s decisions over same-sex marriage issues and gays, anger over abortions, Obamacare, gun control, food stamps, the new voter suppression pushed by GOP governors.
  • USA Today says any jobs recovery is years away in most cities. Meredith Whitney warns that excessive pensions crowd out both liberal goals such as education spending and tax cuts that conservatives want, thus preventing recovery. Corporate pensions are widening the inequality gap. McKesson’s CEO for the past 14 years will retire with a $159 million pension, while the income of America’s average wage earner has stagnated for 30 years.
  • Investors are in denial and won’t get out in time. Wall Street’s returns are just barely beating inflation.
  • Joseph Stiglitz, Bill McKibben, George Soros, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Al Gore et al say traditional economists are addicted to bad economic theories. GDP is a narrow, misleading measure of America’s long-term growth. Obsessive focus on short-term – stock prices, quarterly earnings, annual returns – is stunting America’s long-term growth.

Read the full article at http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-doomsday-poll-98-risk-of-2014-stock-crash-2013-06-29?link=MW_story_popular

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New Critical Warning as 2013 shocker looms – MarketWatch 03-25-13

Salient to Investors:

Paul Farrell writes:

We are at a market top and an economic turning point.

Bernanke’s non-stop cheap-and-easy-money printing presses are loved by Wall Street banks but are bad for the rest of America. His reappointment – certain to become Obama’s greatest domestic blunder – so shocked Nassim Taleb that he went into isolation. Taleb says Bernanke doesn’t even know that he doesn’t understand how things work.

Bernanke has repeated the same ideological mistakes as Greenspan and made the economy worse, created a new bubble, making the next crash ever bigger. Fed chairman believe their own press and believe they alone have the answers. 

We will get a “black swan” before year-end, the big shocker expected by Gary Shilling who says investors are paying little attention to weak and declining global economies and concentrating on the flood of money being created by central banks. Shilling’s 11 sectors to avoid: commodities, developed-country stocks. home builders, your own home, big-ticket consumer-discretionary equities, consumer lender stocks, selected bank stocks, junk securities, developing-country bonds, developing-country stocks and old-tech capital-equipment producers.

Read the full article at http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-critical-warning-as-2013-shocker-looms-2013-03-23

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Major Bank, Economists Agree: Market Collapse Will Strike in 2013 – Money News 01-09-13

Salient to Investors:

JPMorgan report that stocks have retraced the pattern from the last two big market rallies and now face a decline in 2013 of over 50%.

Nouriel Roubini at NYU says there is a chance of an economic “perfect storm” in 2013 due to a worsening eurozone crisis, a hard landing for the Chinese economy, and war in the Middle East that could push oil prices above $200 a barrel.

Jim Rogers says investors should be very worried about 2013, citing the cycle of slowdowns every four to six years.

Robert Wiedemer predicts 50% unemployment, a 90% stock market drop, and 100% annual inflation starting in 2013, and blames Bernanke and Greenspan among others. Sam Stovall at S&P says Wiedemer makes a compelling argument and Paul Farrell at MarketWatch  called Wiedemer’s work “your bible.”

Read the full article at http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/Market-Collapse-Aftershock-2013/2013/01/09/id/470630?promo_code=11F98-1&utm_source=taboola

 

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Women’s Fashion Ad Indicator: New bull 2013 – MarketWatch 10-09-12

Salient to Investors:

Paul Farrell writes:

The fashion industry is betting megabucks on the future of America’s economy and stock market. At the peak of the 1990s mania tech magazines were also bloated with hundreds of pages of ads. Ad pages signal economic health.

Barnes & Noble’s racks are filled with women’s fashion magazines, all bloated with holiday shopping ads just like the 1999 tech magazines at the peak of the dot-com mania.

Behavioral economic research confirm that women see the world differently, in their investment strategies, in what they value most in the economy, and think longer term.

The single biggest emerging global trend is women leading America and the world.

New Economy job skills empower women, level the playing field.

50% more women get college degrees and are beginning to dominate professions like accounting, financial management, optometry, dermatology, forensic pathology and veterinary practices.

In 1998 there were only two women CEOs in the Fortune 500 companies, now there are 19 – at IBM, Pepsico, Xerox, Kraft and DuPont.

Women lead the IMF, Germany and Brazil. Women held 10% of all state legislative seats in the early 1980s, now they hold 24%. There are 17 women US Senators, 73 women representatives, 6 state governors. Worldwide, women make up 20% of elected legislators, almost double 15 years ago. Women reinvest economic gains back into their families and communities more than men do.

Jeremy Grantham says our male-dominated patriarchal culture has created an army of left-brained immediate doers – Wall Street and Corporate America focus on millisecond trades, daily quotes, quarterly earnings and annual bonuses, discounting to zero the longer-term social costs. Grantham says the planet cannot feed the 10 billion global population predicted by the United Nations by 2050, and male-dominated capitalism is absolutely unable to process the finiteness of resources and the mathematical impossibility of maintaining rapid growth in physical output.

Jennifer Homans at the New York Times says patriarchy is crumbling and we are at the beginning of a new era in which women, and womanly skills and traits, are on the rise.

Read the full article at http://www.marketwatch.com/story/womens-fashion-ad-indicator-new-bull-2013-2012-10-09