Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 01-10-16

Fareed Zakaria said:

The most significant trend in the Middle East is Sunnis versus Shiites, which will continue to limit the ability of any outside power to stabilize the region.

Saudi Arabia faces challenges from ISIS to domestic extremists. Plunging oil prices have collapsed government revenues so its generous subsidies to its people will be hard to sustain.

10% to 15% of Saudis are Shiite and live atop the kingdom’s oil fields.

The single greatest threat to America from the Middle East remains radical Sunni jihadists, many of whom draw support from Saudi Arabia.

Americans should root for China to succeed, else feel the pain at home.

The State of the Global Islamic Economy expects Muslims to spend $327 billion on clothing by 2020, versus $230 billion in 2014, ranked third after the US and China. Muslims spent $54 billion on cosmetics in 2014 and that will grow to $80 billion by 2020.

The Violence Policy Center says Alaska had the highest rate of deaths caused by guns in 2014, followed by Louisiana and Mississippi. Gunpolicy.org says Alaska had a higher rate of gun deaths than Mexico. Hawaii and Rhode Island had the lowest gun death rates.

Martin Indyk at Brookings said:

The US went along with the headstrong young leadership in Saudi Arabia into getting stuck in a war in Yemen. 50% of the Gulf states military capability is embroiled in war that is causing humanitarian crisis in Yemen, to the advantage of Iran.

Pulling out of Afghanistan all together is not a good idea because we at least have a leadership there that we can work with.

The US leverage lies in making clear to the Chinese that if they don’t pressure North Kora then we will have no choice but to boost our presence in their region to protect our allies, South Korea and Japan.

Vali Nasr at Johns Hopkins said:

The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 was the tipping point.

The whole geostrategy of the region changed once the US started talking to Iran and decided that it is not as committed to containing Iran as Saudi Arabia expected.

The problem is not containing Iran but the too many Shiites in the region who have to accept to live under a Sunni political order that existed before 2003 Iraq invasion. A Sunni order in which Iran will have absolutely no influence and the Shiites will have absolutely no ability to rely on Iran.

Afghanistan is going sideways and downwards.

Nawaf Obaid at Harvard said:

Saudi Arabia is taking on a much more assertive and aggressive foreign policy to defend themselves from Iran and loss of US presence and leadership in the region. The Saudis will increasingly battle Iranian presence and influence in the Arab world in the next several years.

You cannot have an agreement with a country, Iran, which supports a Syrian dictator who has killed 400,000 people, funds a Shia militia in Iraq guilty of the most atrocious things, and not expect the new deputy crowned prince of Saudi Arabia for irrational decisions. He did not have the luxury to stand still and await guidance from the US which was not coming in the first place.

Robin Wright at The New Yorker, US Institute of Peace and Woodrow Wilson Center said:

The Sunni-Shia schism is turning into one of the biggest divides in Islam in 14 centuries and playing out politically, ideology, strategically, ethnically, and virtually every range.

The crisis has begun to derail Iran’s desire to end its pariah status and restore its stature.

Both Iran and Saudi Arabia are in transition, which limits the influence of the outside world.

Without Chinese help, the prospect of any moderation in North Korea is unlikely. Their leader is 33 years old and very insecure.

Ruchir Sharma at Morgan Stanley said:

A global recession is due. Since the early 1970s, global downturns have struck every 7.5 years on average.

Every country will be affected by China’s policies in 2016. China is now the world’s biggest driver of economic growth. China’s debt levels have risen to 300% of GDP: no developing country in history has ever taken on debt faster than China in recent years. Furiously rising debt levels are the single most reliable predictor of financial crisis.

China’s leadership is so worried about angering its people with slowing growth and rising unemployment that it has been unwilling to stop goosing its economy.

Niall Ferguson at Harvard said the younger Henry Kissinger was not Machiavellian at all, but inept in his attempts for self-advancement and politically slightly naive.

Gary Kasparov said:

Russia is at a very dangerous stage because of Putin and things will get worse before they get better because of collapsing oil prices and the Russian budget. There is no visible positive scenario, only choices for lesser evil.

Putin will continue his aggressive foreign policy because his white knight propaganda needs these victories. Putin is a very capable KGB officer and excellent negotiator and poker player. If not for NATO membership, Putin’s tanks would be in Estonia and Latvia. Putin looks for the weak spot on the map and grabs it if he can.

The fundamental problem of the West is complacency after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ , listen at http://podcast.cnn.com/fareed-zakaria-gps/episode/all/TkwD3eujmTzNlz/fzgps-2016-01-10.html or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1601/10/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 01-03-16

Fareed Zakaria said:

Trade accounts for 23% of the US economy vs. 71% in Germany.

The big trend in 2016 will be continued weak oil and commodity prices: the last dramatic decline of oil resulted in the collapse ofdemothe Soviet Union.

The stock market under Obama has compounded at nearly 14% a year but this cannot continue because we are overdue a recession, China is in a recession, Europe is going nowhere, and the oil-producing emerging markets have fallen off a cliff. At the end of the day the US always muddles through and looks better than everybody else.

In Rwanda, women comprise 64% of the parliament, 50% of the Supreme Court, 50% of the Cabinet.

Angus Deaton and Anne Case found that over the past 15 years, middle-aged US whites died in increasing numbers; caused primarily by suicide, alcoholism, and drug overdoses, partly because doctors and drug companies were far too eager to prescribe drugs. The case is worse for those with a high school diploma or less. Jeff Guo at the Washington Post said this cohort is largely responsible for Trump’s lead among Republican candidates.

Carolyn Rouse at Princeton said that non-white US groups might have lower income, standard of living, and social status expectations, while blacks cope with disappointment through family, art, protest speech, and religion.

WHO says 663 million people still have no access to safe, clean drinking water. UNICEF says water-borne illnesses kill nearly 1,000 children every single day.

Ian Bremmer at the Eurasia Group said:

At the end of 2016 the trajectory of US-Iranian relations will be better than US-Saudi relations.

To resolve Syria requires leadership, people who actually care, and the ability to coordinate, all of which are lacking, so we will be much farther away from a federated Syria in 2016 than we are in 2015.

Weak oil prices puts Middle East countries under much internal pressure, and they will more likely play nationalism which does bodes ill for peace in the region.

It’s either Cruz or Rubio for the Republican nomination. 2015 was the year of Trump, but 2016 will not be. Middle class anger is insufficient to get Trump the nomination: he is going after the losers, who historically in the US do not vote.  Hillary has no serious challenger for the Democrats. Who wins is a coin flip right now.

Expect many geo-political fat tails to impact the stock market, and we are due a recession. China is the big mover: the most volatile, the most uncertain, and the country with by far the most tools to kick the can down the road – and they want to.

Richard Haass at the Council on Foreign Relations said:

Weak oil prices will last through 2016 – excepting major instability involving Saudi Arabia – hurting oil producers, Africa, and Latin America, but a boon to India though not China, which has internal economic problems adjusting its economic model. Weak oil prices will be a mixed blessing for the US but a major blanket on world economic growth, feeding political uncertainty.

Saudi Arabia is the most underrated global risk because of weak oil prices. Yemen is the Saudis’ Vietnam, there are simmering rivalries inside the Saudi royal family, and the beheading of Sheikh Nimr has poisoned the already terrible relationship with Iran while exacerbating the Saudi position in Bahrain.

We are seeing elements of a “Thirty Years War” in Syria. ISIS will be rolled back a little in Iraq but not Syria, and it sees Saudi Arabia as an extremely ripe target.

On the Democratic side, Hillary will prevail but not easily.

In 2016, we have a good chance of passing the Transpacific Trade Partnership with the benefit of Speaker Ryan’s ability to get a budget deal. 2015 ended positively with the US showing the world it can function sometimes.

Anne-Marie Slaughter at New America said:

Expect a settlement of the Syrian civil war in 2016 resulting in a ‘federated Syria’ where the Kurds, Sunnis and others effectively have their own regions, but for Turkey this presents a huge problem. Russia will play nice because of both oil prices and its inability to handle rising casualties in Syria. Europe is completely focused on a settlement because of the refugee crisis, and everybody knows we have to solve Syria to be able to fight ISIS.

It will be a Clinton beating Cruz presidential election because the worse the world becomes, the more people want a President who knows the leaders and who projects competence. A Cruz-Clinton election is good for America in the world because it is between a woman and a Hispanic man.

The Transpacific Trade Partnership will happen in 2016 because it will be seen in more a security context than an economic context, thanks to ISIS and China’s maneuvers in the South China Sea.

The US dollar will rise and rise due to China’s instability, the euro, and the eurozone crisis.

Mariana Mazzucato at the University of Sussex said:

The narrative about Steve Jobs and Apple misses the fact that every technology that basically makes an iPhone smart was publicly funded, including the Internet, GPS, touch screen display, and Siri.

In industry after industry, key basic innovations were publicly funded, not indirectly like with tax incentives, but with basic research, applied research, and early stage, long-term financing. Most venture capitalists want to exit in 3 or 5 years versus the Death Valley phase for many innovative companies that can last 10 to 15 years. There is plenty of finance available, but not the right kind of finance for innovation.

The government has financed many winners, including biotechnology where the NIH has spent $900 billion since the 1930s on the basic technology. Private companies basically surfed this wave, which is today missing in the green tech industry.

Venture capitalists know that for every success there are 8 or 9 failures. Unlike public investors, private venture capital gets to reap the winners to cover the losers. Tesla received approximately the same public funding as Solyndra, yet gained massively for private capital, whereas the latter was written off by taxpayers. Israeli government investments take royalties through their public venture capital fund. In the US we see this as socialism.

Google, whose algorithm was funded by the National Science Foundation, Apple, Amazon, et al, pay little tax, despite tax rates that have fallen dramatically. NASA, founded when the top marginal rate was 93 percent, is not allowed to make money, yet SpaceX and Galaxy make use of its publicly funded infrastructure for free.

 

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ , listen at http://podcast.cnn.com/fareed-zakaria-gps/episode/all/TkwD3eujmTzNlz/fzgps-2015-12-20.html or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1601/03/fzgps.01.html

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Petrostate Cash Crunch Continues Amid Oil Collapse, Proxy Wars – Zero Hedge 09-07-15

Salient to Investors:

Tyler Durden writes:

  • ZIRP has allowed insolvent US oil producers to stay in business and help keep oil prices low, and now Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also tapping the credit markets.
  • Saudi Arabia needs crude at $100 to finance their budget deficit estimated to be 20% of GDP.
  • Qatar’s budget deficit is only 0.7% of GDP and in the best financial shape relative to its neighbors.
  • Saudi Arabia and Qatar are highly likely to be drawn further into the conflict in Syria.

Read the full article at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-07/petrostate-cash-crunch-continues-amid-oil-collapse-proxy-wars

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 08-23-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • The last time oil fell more than 50% in less than a year, in the 1980s, the Soviet Union collapsed.
  • Saudi Arabia wants to put American shale and tight oil producers out of business, but they have survived using technology and smart business practices.
  • Major oil-producing countries everywhere face a fiscal reckoning.
    • Oil is 96% of Venezuela’s exports, so its economy is expected to shrink by 7% in 2015.
    • Russia’s economy is expected to shrink by 3.4% in 2015 as oil and gas revenues are 50% of its budget.
    • Oil is 90% of Iraq’s budget. With limited resources, Iraq’s Shiite government is hard-pressed to pay the Sunnis.
    • The IMF estimates that Iran needs almost $100 oil to balance its budget.
  • Cato Institute says Chile, Canada, Sweden and Germany are all freer than the US, which was 20th versus 17th in 2008.
  • The NOAA says half1, 2015 was the warmest period on record. NASA says July was the hottest ever recorded.
  • In 2015, Gallup found that only 8% of American full-time workers work less than 40 hours a week, 42% work 40 hours, and 50% work more than 40 hours a week.

Nick Butler at Kings College says we are in for a longer and more sustained period of low oil prices than occurred in the late 1980s; because of the perfect storm of substantially increased supplies. Revenues of Gazprom, which finances Putin’s clique, is estimated to fall by almost 30% in 2015.

Leonardo Maugeri at Harvard says there is no way to stop falling oil prices to possibly $35 in 2016, largely because Saudi Arabia will keep pumping in the hope it hurts everyone else more than itself.

General Wesley Clark said:

  • Putin wants less US pressure on Ukraine in exchange for cooperation on Iran.
  • The territorial integrity of Ukraine is non-negotiable.
  • NATO bases should be in the east. The US created NATO and has always been its leader.

Radek Sikorski said:

  • Putin has largely misspent the oil boom’s money, but has invested heavily in his armed forces.
  • Putin should be told that the NATO area is out-of-bounds for Russian military adventurism.
  • NATO bases should be where they are needed, in the east.

Larry Cohler-Esses at The Forward said:

  • Iranian hard-liners rigidly compartmentalize Jews who they consider people of the book under Islam from Zionists.
  • Iran has between 9,000 and 20,000 Jews versus 80,000 to 100,000 before the revolution in 1979.

Derek Thompson at the Atlantic said:

  • The grand narrative of technological change in economics is creative destruction. 200 years ago we were an agrarian economy, 60 years ago a manufacturing economy, and now a services economy. Youngstown, Ohio experienced something very much like the end of work when an enormous steel mill shut down in September 1977. People are still leaving.
  • Many jobs can be replaced by technologies right on the horizon.
    • Driving is the most common occupation among American men, so self-driving automobiles are a serious threat to employment in the US.
    • The four most common occupations in the US economy are retail salesperson, cashier, food and beverage worker, and office clerk, all of which, according to Oxford university, are extremely automatable.
  • Government today could not enact universe basic income – a government check for everybody – which is absolutely essential for people to use technological change and technological unemployment to push toward a better future.

Zeynep Ton at MIT said:

  • Corporate America should not be cutting staff, salaries and benefits to improve the balance sheet, just the opposite. The trade-off between low prices and good jobs is actually forced trade-offs.
  • Most retail companies see labor as a cost so try to have as few people as possible on the selling floor. Under-staffing creates lots of problems: long checkout lines, products are in the wrong place, inaccurate prices, all of which increase costs and lower service. By investing in people, Toyota lowered costs and increased quality at the same time.
  • Investing in workers and making smart decisions drive great value for companies and their investors.
  • A good jobs strategy requires a long-term view, and people are wired to emphasize the short-term at the expense of the long-term; like smoking and not exercising.
  • Many companies do not see the whole picture and are stuck in silos and therefore mediocrity; they can still make money that way.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1508/23/fzgps.01.html

 

Central Banks Have Shot Their Wad – Why The Casino Is In For A Rude Awakening, Part I – David Stockman’s Contra Corner 07-25-15

Salient to Investors:

David Stockman writes:

The central banks have shot their wad after increasing their aggregate balance sheet from $3 trillion to $22 trillion over the last 15 years, which falsified financial prices.

The coming deflation will bring a plunge in corporate profits and collapsing prices of vastly inflated risk asset classes. The Bloomberg commodity index will fall below the 100 index level as the cycle from asset accumulation and inflation to asset liquidation and deflation continues. The lagged effect of the project completion cycle causes excess capacity to continue to grow, meaning the plunge in commodity and industrial prices and profit margins has only just begun, and will fall for years to come. Production cuts and capacity liquidation in virtually every materials sector is being drastically delayed by the continuing availability of cheap finance, meaning prices and margins will be driven even lower than would otherwise be with excess capacity.

Central banks engineered massive household borrowing and consumption/housing spending in the developed economies which then ignited an export manufacturing boom in China et al which over-taxed the supply of raw materials as the commodity price boom peaked with $150 oil in July 2008. Governments and central banks then battled the plunge in consumer spending and liquidation of bad mortgages, excess inventories and over-stocked labor by triggering a second artificial economic boom in CapEx and infrastructure spending in China and the emerging markets. China’s total debt went from about 150% of its GDP in 2007 to nearly 300% of GDP today.

Central bankers drove interest rates towards zero to try to spur spending by the middle classes, already at peak debt, but instead generated a scramble for yield among money managers and capital outflows of $4-5 trillion into emerging market debt: the resulting tidal wave of capital investment caused a second surge of commodity prices which peaked in 2011-2013. The monetary expansion has left the developed world at peak household debt and the emerging markets drowning in excess capacity to produce commodities and industrial goods.

CapEx by the world’s top 40 miners rose from $18 billion in 2001 to $42 billion by 2008, paused during the financial crisis, and then rose to a peak $130 billion in 2013. New projects then halted, but big projects in the pipeline when commodity prices and profit margins began to roll-over in 2012, are being completed due to the sunk cost syndrome: thus on-line capacity continues to soar despite falling prices.

CapEx on oil and gas rose from $100 billion in 2000 to $400 billion in 2008 and to the peak at $700 billion in 2014. Lifting costs even for shale and tar sands are modest compared to the front-end capital investment so the response of production to plunging prices has been limited and will be substantially prolonged.

Steel capacity has doubled from 1.1 billion tons to over 2.3 billion tons during the past 15 years, far outstripping current demand. Excess capacity could easily reach 35%, or more than the combined steel industry of the US, Europe and Japan.

Thompson Reuters reports global CapEx for manufacturing, transport, construction, process industries and utilities rose from $450 billion in 1991 to $700 billion in 2001, a 4.5% annual rate, and to $2.6 trillion in 2013, a 12% annual rate.

Read the full article at http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/central-banks-have-shot-their-wad-why-the-casino-is-in-for-a-rude-awakening-part-i/?utm_source=wysija&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Mailing+List+Sunday+10+AM

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More Job Losses Coming To U.S. Shale – OilPrice.com 07-16-15

Salient to Investors:

Gaurav Agnihotri writes:

  • The short to medium-term outlook for oil is mostly bearish. The Iran nuclear agreement, Greece, high OPEC production, and China’s market turmoil make an oil price rebound highly unlikely in the near future. Low oil prices will most likely result in more job losses.
  • The US shale sector is already dealing with rising debt and the ever-increasing risk of default. Surprisingly, a recent IHS study revealed that sector has been boosting job creation in addition to supporting around 1.7 million jobs in US. Most US shale industry hedges on production are about to expire.
  • Saudi Arabia is very worried about the coming shale boom in Argentina. George Soros, Warren Buffet, major hedge funds et al are watching as Argentina’s huge undeveloped shale reserves have just opened up to outside oil companies.
  • Goldman Sachs predicts WTI will fall to $45 a barrel by October, making almost a third of US shale oil too expensive to produce, and $50 oil deterring any US drilling recovery this year.

Read the full article at http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/More-Job-Losses-Coming-to-US-Shale.html

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Urgent Warning: 6 Signs the Great Crash Is Upon Us! – David Stockman’s Contra Corner -7-16-15

Salient to Investors:

Harry Dent writes:

  • All the signs point to the end of the global bubble. The greatest trigger will be the bursting of the massive, unprecedented China bubble. China’s stock market loss of 35% in less than 30 days signals its stock bubble has peaked: a drop of 30% to 40% in short order is a clear sign of the first wave down in a major bust and the greatest sign that the next great global crash is imminent.
  • China’s stock market will bounce in the coming weeks and then crash again, with real estate and its economy to follow.
  • The Greek default proves that endless quantitative easing idiocy has proved unable to create sustainable long-term recoveries in highly indebted developed countries with poor demographic trends. Greece did the wrong thing by again kicking the can a little further down the road.
  • US stocks could be the last major market to make a new high before rolling over.
  • Oil prices will fall, killing the fracking industry, a $1 trillion investment with $600 billion of junk bonds and leveraged loans – much larger than Greece.
  • Emerging markets have led the global slowdown and are about to break to the downside out of a 4-month trading range.
  • Long-term rates for sovereign and Treasury bonds are rising despite governments stimulating and guaranteeing their economies. Rising long-term, risk-free rates hurt stock valuations and real estate even harder due to higher mortgage costs.
  • Gold will continue to fall but will have a minor bounce.

Read the full article at http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/urgent-warning-6-signs-the-great-crash-is-upon-us/?utm_source=wysija&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Mailing+List+Mid+Day+Friday

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Iran looks to energy reserves for post-sanctions influence – BBC News 06-05-15

Salient to Investors:

Iran would be a superpower in global energy markets if reserves in the ground were the measuring stick – only Russia has more oil and gas reserves. The CIA reports proven natural gas reserves in 2014 (in cubic metres) in Russia were 47,800,000,000,000, in Iran 33,800,000,000,000, in Qatar 25,070,000,000,000, in the US 8,734,000,000,000, in Saudi Arabia 8,235,000,000,000.

Jamie Ingram at IHS said a nuclear deal with Iran has to happen this year because there is so much political will on both sides. Ingram said Iran is keen to compete with Russia, so Europe is a potential market.

Iran wants its power industry to use more gas and less oil so has ambitious plans to increase significantly gas production in the coming years.

The surplus of LNG in the world is pushing prices lower, and the US and Australia are set to increase exports massively in the coming years.

Valerie Marcel at Chatham House said the main hurdle in Iran’s gas export ambitions has always been price, so without a firm commitment from buyers, no pipeline infrastructure will be built.

Europe is looking to wean itself off Russian gas, while Iran is looking for diplomatic leverage that would make the re-imposition of sanctions far harder to countenance.

Read the full article at http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32899264

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 02-22-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • There are 1.6 billion Muslims in the world of which perhaps 30,000 are members of ISIS.
  • Sheri Berman at Barnard College says ideologies succeed when they replace failed ideas. ISIS has benefited from the failure of Pan Arab-ism, Republicanism, nascent efforts at democracy, economic liberalism and secularism.

Graeme Wood at Yale said:

  • Obama’s approach to ISIS is correct but denying ISIS has any Islamic character whatsoever is wrong and leads to misguided approaches.
  • ISIS is much more focused on Muslims in Iraq, Syria, and the immediate surroundings. ISIS hates Arab rulers more than they hate Israeli leaders so it is less of a direct threat to the American homeland but is a big threat to Middle East stability.

Shadi Hamid at Brookings said ISIS’ approach to Islam is a distortion and ignores centuries of medieval Islamic tradition – it is distinctly modern and reacting against what it dislikes in the world.

Peter Beinart at City University of New York said:

  • America has done best when it has defined its enemies narrowly. We allied with communists like Yugoslavia and China against the Soviet Union and never declared war on fascist Spain in WWII.
  • ISIS is not as great a threat as many fear so Obama’s approach is the right one.
  • Obama’s dispute with Netanyahu goes to the core of how they see themselves historically – Netanyahu as Churchill in the 1930s warning of Nazis, and Obama as Nixon in the 1970s with opening up China.
  • If the nuclear deal with Iran fails, and we have new sanctions, we will be on a path to war.

Peter Zeihan said:

  • In economic growth, what really matters is demography, geography, and topography, which is why almost all of the successful ones civilizations developed around navigable waterways.
  • The US has over 17,000 miles of navigable waterways, more than the rest of the world combined. China and Germany have 2,000 miles. Water transport costs 1/12 of what it cost to move things by land even assuming you have the infrastructure in place. Adding in interstate roadways, ports, and everything, it is a 50-1 advantage.
  • The Intracoastal Waterway, half of American water frontage, is protected. Texas has more combined port potential than all of East Asia. The three largest ports in the world are San Francisco Bay, Puget Sound and Chesapeake Bay.
  • The US is the only rich country in the world that is not aging fast like Japan and even Germany.
  • In the developing world, rapid urbanization has been good for economic growth but has made children a luxury good, so birth rates have collapsed. Indonesia and Brazil are aging at 3 or 4 times the rate in Western Europe.
  • The global trade system is dependent on the US, which does not really use it.
  • The US is the least involved international economy as a percentage of GDP and much of that is disappearing – US oil imports have dropped from 12 mbpd to 2 mbpd and within 2 years will be zero. Shale production costs are below $50 a barrel so the oil [price war is pushing out Russian Siberian crude or North Slope crude or Albertan or North Sea crude.
  • Oil prices are decoupling so there will not be a global price and a Middle East crisis will mean more expensive Middle Eastern oil but not West Texas crude.
  • Japan, China, and Germany et al all prospered over the last 70 years because the US set up a free trade system and defended the global commons with its Navy, which is 4 times more powerful than everybody else’s combined. That relationship and US commitment is ending and we are entering a new world which will be responsible for patrolling its own system along with resulting resource wars.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript

at http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1502/22/fzgps.01.html

Goldman: Here’s Why Oil Crashed—and Why Lower Prices Are Here to Stay – Bloomberg 02-11-15

Salient to Investors:

Sven Jari Stehn at Goldman Sachs said:

  • The massive supply shock in half2 2014 accounted for most of the oil price decline, joined by slowing demand in December and January.
  • Since the stock market is a good indicator of economic demand, when stocks move in tandem with oil prices, demand is the driver: when oil prices move in the opposite direction of stocks, supply is the driver.
  • The new equilibrium price of oil will be much lower than over the past decade as a result of the oversupplied global oil market.

Read the full article at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-11/goldman-here-s-why-oil-crashed-and-why-lower-prices-are-here-to-stay

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