Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 11-29-15

Fareed Zakaria said:

ISIS is about religion and power, with increasing evidence its military backbone is comprised of high ranking officers from Saddam Hussein’s army.

ISIS has thrived primarily because of the rage and rebellion of the Sunnis of Iraq and Syria. ISIS is a messaging and recruitment machine, and so long as it can attract young Muslim men across the globe, ISIS is a growing danger to the world that is impossible to fully assess .

ISIS is like other radical Islamic groups, such as the Taliban, in that their allure fades once under their medieval barbarous governance.

Thomas Friedman at The New York Times said ISIS’ value proposition is to offer young men who have never held a job, power, or a girl’s hand, the promise of a wife, a salary, and to be lorded over others.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1511/15/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 11-15-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said that until there is an alternate, moderate Sunni government in Syria, ISIS will return there.

Michael Chertoff at Chertoff Group said:

The 9/11 generation of al Qaeda is largely gone. The new generation is focused on both large and small-scale attacks.

ISIS is recruiting in the West in a much more sophisticated way than the original al Qaeda; by appealing through social media to people who are disaffected or looking for something to affiliate with.

If we do not give a safe haven to the people caught between Assad/Shia and ISIS, they will wind up as either refugees or extremists.

Fawaz Gerges at London School of Economics said:

France has networks of local supporters of ISIS and al Qaeda groups.

The strategic goal of ISIS remains the near enemy, on the caliphate and on consolidating the Islamic State.

al Qaeda never numbered more than 3,000 fighters. ISIS has between 30,000 and 100,000 fighters including 4,000 Westerners.

ISIS is losing ground in Iraq and Syria and wants to use the attacks in Paris and Egypt to convince its followers it is winning.

David Frum at The Atlantic said:

Only 33% of the migrants who have tried to enter Europe since 2014 have been from Syria. The bigger problem is the complete collapse of any kind of orderly process in Europe.

It is impossible to resettle all the migrants in Europe. The vast majority will stay in Turkey and Lebanon so the focus should be on making their temporary refuges more humane; with electricity, water and things for people to do.

The US has no goals in Syria, and without goals, military methods cannot succeed.

Maajid Nawaz at Quilliam said attacks like those in Paris are the new normal: expects many more attacks, Britain is overdue for one.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1511/15/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 11-08-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

Sending 50 special troops into Syria will fail and the US will face backing down or doubling down in a few months.

Leslie Gelb and Richard Betts said Kennedy and Johnson never believed that incremental interventions in Vietnam would work but escalated involvement there anyway just to be seen to be doing something.

Obama will keep American intervention in Syria small and limited but leave his successor a terrible dilemma; like Kennedy did to Johnson.

Robert Papa at University of Chicago says ISIS only attacks foreign enemies when they interfere in the region: like with France, Canada, Russia.

The Legatum Institute’s 2015 prosperity index found that 94% of Canadians are satisfied with their personal freedom, versus 87% of Americans – the US ranked 15th.

Puerto Rico’s employment rate is 35%, poverty rate 45%, and 5%+ of its people have left in the last 10 years. Puerto Rico does not have the right to declare bankruptcy like US cities.

Larry Summers says:

Puerto Rico’s debt is too large to be paid off by further tax increases and spending cuts.

If powerful creditors succeed in thwarting Obama’s move to allow PR to file bankruptcy it would be a disaster for all Puerto Ricans.

Michael Hayden at the Chertoff Group said:

Al Qaeda has been working on undetectable bombs for a long time.

While Al Qaeda was strategic, thoughtful, hierarchical, and operated from the top down, ISIS is populist, tactical, opportunistic and works from the bottom up.

Al Qaeda attacked its far enemy in order to undermine its near enemies, while ISIS wants to wage war on its near enemies.

Fawaz Gerges at London School of Economics. said:

What changed in the last year was the marriage between a local insurgency in Sinai and ISIS, particularly ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

There is more than one insurgency in Egypt, and the danger is how many young Egyptians would migrate to ISIS. ISIS’s powerful narrative of ending civility, defying the West and Russia, resonates with young Sunni Muslims in the Middle East and the world.

Ian Bremmer at Eurasia Group said:

The game changer was Russia’s decision to go into Syria, not the Egypt air crash. Russia does not wage war for the public good but only when they get something in return. In Syria, Russia first wants to shore up Assad.

Most all of the political spectrum, including Russia and Egypt, gets support only from taking the hardest possible line domestically: expect no national dialogue with the opposition.

Ta-Nehisi Coates at The Atlantic cited Patrick Sharkey at NYU, who found that African-American families making $100k a year tend to live in the same sort of neighborhoods as white families making $30k.

Martin Wolf at The Financial Times said:

Immigration benefits migrants and the world as a whole but not necessarily a country – it depends very much on who are the immigrants. Britain is not good at building the infrastructure needed to accommodate new immigrants.

The fiscal effect of immigrants can be positive or negative depending on a country’s welfare state. In many countries, immigrants tend not to be very successful in being employed.

Donald Trump is wrong about everything, and some of his propositions are mad.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1511/08/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 10-11-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • We cannot solve Afghanistan without recognizing Pakistani army support for the Taliban. No counter-insurgency has ever succeeded where the rebels have a safe haven, so until this is dealt with, the Taliban will never be defeated. Pakistan pretends to help the US while supporting its most deadly foes.
  • Pakistan is a time bomb. It has one of the world’s largest armies, the fastest growing nuclear arsenal, and the most opaque. 5.5 million Pakistani children do not attend school. The US faces a strategic collapse as it withdraws forces from the region unless Pakistan’s military and its mindset are reformed.
  • Any US involvement in Syria has to be aimed at dislodging Assad from power, which would produce total chaos; viz. Iraq, Libya and Yemen.
  • Italy, France et al is the world’s greatest paradise: beautiful countries, amazingly rich, incredibly nice work rules, long vacations, ability to early retire. So why reform?
  • The Economist ranked the UK 1st out of 80 countries in the 2015 quality of death index, Taiwan 6th, the US 9th. Mongolia ranked 1st out of the low-income countries.
  • The US should abandon the outdated 9:00 to 5:00 work-week.
    • Henry Ford pioneered cutting back employees’ hours to make his workers happier and more productive.
    • One study found that people working 40 hours or less each week outperform on certain tasks those who work more than 55 hours per week.
    • A Stanford study found that the number of hours somebody works is not directly proportional to his output, while at 48 working hours, productivity falls.
    • Tony Schwartz says people work better in short bursts than long ones.
    • A 2014 Gallup survey found that American full-time workers averaged 47 hours per week, while almost 20% of Americans work 60 hours per week or more.
    • The OECD found that US workers worked more hours on average in 2014 than workers in many other countries, including the UK, Germany and Japan.
    • Alternet says white-collar knowledge workers have 6, not 8, hours of productive work in them each day.

Julia Ioffe at the Wall Street Journal said:

  • Putin is a tactician, not a strategist, but his economy is cratering and his military much weaker than the US military. Putin is moving into areas that the US has traditionally dominated; Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan.
  • Russian Muslims are all Sunni whereas Putin is aligning himself with an exclusively Shiite coalition and his Syrian move will inevitably blow up on him.
  • The US should take in many more refugees.

Bret Stephens at the Wall Street Journal said:

  • Putin is investing in Syria the way that Trump invests in real estate – with a very small investment for a potentially large payoff. His move into Syria helps distract the Russian people from its sinking economy.
  • Putin is a frog who jumps from lily pad to lily pad when he feels them sinking under his weight – from KGB agent to Leningrad technocrat to reformist president to patron of the Oligarchs.
  • Syria is a metastasizing cancer so the US has both a humanitarian and geopolitical interest. US no fly zones over northern Iraq in 1971 saved many Kurds and effectively helped create the Kurdish Autonomous Region – the single biggest American achievement in the Muslim world in the last 25 years.
  • Syria is many countries and just because we cannot solve it does not mean we cannot help its Kurdish areas become sustainable opposition.
  • The problem in Israel is the failure of leadership by Mahmoud Abbas, by Abu Mazen, in both tamping down and stoking violence.

Ian Bremmer at the Eurasia Group said:

  • Putin is in Syria to shore up Assad and not destroy ISIS. Taking casualties would be very unpopular in Russia.
  • Europe believes Syria is more important than Ukraine and that the only way to fix Syria is through Moscow, which could then ask Europe to back off sanctions. The cease-fire in Ukraine is working because Putin has got the paramilitaries there to back off their election. Europe and the US are moving farther apart every day.
  • Russia’s economy will contract by 4% to 4.5%, but its central bank has stabilized the rubble and during Putin’s tenure, per capita income has risen much.
  • 90% of Russians get their media primarily from state controlled TV with is pretty effective.
  • The problem with Syria is not Obama’s policy but that his rhetoric bears no reflection to his policy.
  • The Trans-Pacific pact is 40% of the world economy and a real pivot to Asia, the most important part of the world for the US – it is Obama’s most important successful foreign policy legacy. That TPP’s former architect Hillary Clinton is now opposed to it is astonishing.

Peter Beinart at the Atlantic said:

  • Putin’s move in Syria will increase terrorism against Russia by positioning it opposite the entire Sunni world and so cannot end well.
  • Obama is right not to get involved in Syria, and should not have done so in Yemen.
  • The rise in terrorism in Israel is a product of the fact that the two-state vision is weakening on both sides.

George Soros said the euro crisis has converted the EU from a voluntary association of free and legal nations, devoted to principles of democracy and human rights and willing to sacrifice some sovereignty for the common good, into an unequal relationship between creditors and debtors, who have difficulty meeting their obligations.

President Bill Clinton said:

  • The immigration/refugee problem in Europe can be turned into an opportunity: e.g. Syrians are overwhelmingly literate, productive, and historically secular, not super religious, and particularly not politically violent.
  • Ireland is the only European country that is younger than America and was growing like crazy, before its banking bubble, because it had many immigrants from Central and Eastern Europe, which made it even younger.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1510/11/fzgps.01.html

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 10-04-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • Russia’s move in Syria is a desperate effort to shore up one of its only foreign allies and risks making it the great Satan with jihadists everywhere. However, Putin has at least a clearer strategy in Syria than Obama.
  • An US army of less than 30,000 men could easily defeat ISIS but then own problem territory in Syria.
  • Historically, the US when allied with a local force that was capable and viewed as legitimate has succeeded, but without such local allies, has not.
  • Syria will never be an intermingled country ever again whatever happens.
  • Code.org estimates that by 2020, there will be only 400,000 computer science students to fill the 1.4 million computing jobs in the US.
  • Liberal arts are important in teaching creativity, analytic thought and the joy of learning.

Jeff Colvin at Fortune said:

  • Studying humanities could become as valuable as a science degree because some jobs will always be done by “relationship workers”, the ones that emphasize social interaction – the need to interact with others is connected to our very survival, which is why we would prefer to see a real doctor or choose to work in teams.
  • From 2001 to 2009, the McKenzie Global Institute found that jobs involving human interaction, e.g. nurses and lawyers, increased by nearly 5 million in the US, while transaction and production jobs fell.
  • Science and technology disciplines are still crucial, but the humanities strengthen the deep human abilities critical for the success of most people far more than engineering or computer science.

George Soros said that Europe is in a state of disintegration, which started in 2008 and has become non-linear with problems with Greece, Ukraine, migration, and Putin’s Russia.

President Bill Clinton said:

  • Not very long ago, Europeans were killing each other in large numbers. The EU is a miracle, but in times of insecurity, fueled by both political problems and the absence of economic growth, negative identity politics tend to trump positive identity politics.
  • The issue of negative versus positive identity when you have slow growth is also true in America.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1510/04/fzgps.01.html

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 09-27-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said the Syrian civil war will not end any time soon.

Bill Clinton said:

  • Without a nuclear agreement with Iran 1 to 4 other states would get nuclear power in the Middle East. 10 years is a long time: from 1979-1989, the Berlin wall fell, the Warsaw Pact collapsed, the Soviet Union ended.
  • Ukraine is very resource rich and can do much with agriculture.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/

or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1509/27/fzgps.01.html

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 09-20-15

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • The US is more dominant globally than at any point since the Clinton era, with growth almost 2 times the Eurozone and 4 times Japan, and unemployment the lowest in 7 years. European businessmen are concerned with American dominance from technology to entertainment to finance. America’s big banks are more dominant than ever.
  • WSJ says JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have increased their total value by $254.6 billion in the last 5 years versus $9.5 billion total increased value for Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, UBS and RBS.
  • Japan is the poster child for economic stagnation and political paralysis.
  • Every Western country is experiencing greater anti-immigrant feeling.
  • We should not interfere in Syria.
  • The most serious place in politics remains the center because that is where the majority is.
  • Iran will accept the nuclear deal because Rouhani is the most popular figure there and Khamenei would not want to dash the people’s enormous sense of hope and expectation.

Ruchir Sharma at Morgan Stanley said:

  • The US has emerged from the 2008 crisis better than anyone, has reduced its debt more than Europe, and has outperformed all other equity markets. 9 of the 10 most valuable companies in the world are US. The US dollar is the currency of choice.
  • China’s debt is at extremely dangerous levels.

David Frum at the Atlantic said:

  • There is no end to the huge migration of people from all over the world. Migration in moderation could strengthen Europe but it is not happening in moderation and will transform Europe.
  • You cannot neatly distinguish between refugees fleeing for their lives and immigrants fleeing for better opportunities. You cannot screen out the danger to Europe because it has come from the second generation and from radicalization caused by unemployment, alienation and the inability to assimilate.
  • Germany’s decision on migrants was emotional, not thought through and has unanticipated consequences.
  • Europe has had very bad experiences with migrants: migrants have much higher levels of long-term unemployment, much more dependency on the state, and European prisons have a disproportion of second generation migrants.
  • European governments owe their first duty to their own citizens.

Danielle Pietka at the American Enterprise Institute said:

  • Western Europe must help the migrants, and Merkel has done the right thing, but there needs to be EU wide to make sure the people passing the screening are not shoved in voiliers in Paris or Saudi-run mosques in Hamburg.
  • Russia believes the US is not going to do anything over their involvement with Syria and are there to help Assad.
  • Letting hundreds of thousands of Syrians fight and kill each other is unconscionable, especially for the most powerful and richest country in the world.

David Milband at the International Rescue Committee said:

  • It is harder to get to the United States as a refugee than under any other program.
  • Employment for refugees up to 5 years is higher than for the rest of the population.
  • Merkel is responding to the reality that 350,000 refugees had already arrived this year and that the best way to get a burden sharing arrangement was to take the lead.
  • Migrants should not be confused with refugees, who have a well-founded fear of persecution and a right to international law.
  • The danger is that Britain thinks Russia is a declining power and Russia thinks Britain is a declining power.
  • Russia’s elevated support for Assad is a sign of his weakened position from a year ago. Russia could pull the rug from under Assad because he has become a problem for Russian concern over Islamic radicalism emanating from Syria.
  • In the solution for Lebanon, every community had a stake in government, which is impossible for Syria at the moment.

 

Thomas Erdbrink at the New York Times said:

  • It is getting harder to figure what Iran’s leaders want and which direction the country is heading.
  • Iran feels it was taken to the cleaners by the nuclear deal but will accept it. The bigger issue for them is whether or not to cooperate with the US in the region. Iran is the only stable state in a divided and troubled Middle East and a weakened Saudi Arabia.

Karim Sadjadpour at the Carnegie Endowment said:

  • Both Iranian supporters and the opponents of the nuclear deal believe their supreme leader agrees with their position. In the end, Iran will accept the nuclear deal because Khamenei does not want to stand between Iranians and economic deliverance.
  • Khamenei’s MO is to wield power without accountability and have a president with accountability but without power, so he will blame Rouhani when popular expectations of the deal are not met. Khamenei has emasculated Iran’s previous 4 presidents.

Gillian Tett at the Financial Times said:

  • Despite living in a hyper-connected world, we are as fragmented, if not more so, than ever before. We fool ourselves into thinking we are no longer captive to our social and cultural rules anymore, but we are.
  • Hyper specialization produces people who cannot see opportunities or risks.
  • Sony is an example of a company filled with bright individuals who did some really dumb things. Different departments did not collaborate with each other and instead cannibalized each other. The result is we now carry iPods and not digital Walkmans.
  • Every company says it wants employees to think outside the box yet almost every company deepens and makes those boxes more rigid. In the name of streamlining everything, companies eliminate opportunities for employees to stop, think, roam mentally or collide with each other. Facebook deliberately moves employees around and recognizes that a box or a boundary can also be dangerous without stepping back to think about the social structure created.
  • Having a background in cultural anthropology helps make sense of how modern companies or modern institutions exist.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/

or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1509/20/fzgps.01.html

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 09-13-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • China’s economy is nearly 2.5 times that of Japan so even if growth slows substantially, China will continue to have seismic effects on the global economy.
  • Henry Kissinger said Republican candidate China-bashing is dangerous and could create an atmosphere a la Europe before WW I – a war no one wanted but no one knew how to prevent.
  • China’s renminbi has appreciated substantially against the dollar and yen over the past few years so devaluing it due to market forces is wise, which is why the move was praised by the IMF. China’s inconsistent and ineffective policies in the currency and equity markets does not make it evil.
  • Germany has tried as hard as any nation in history to repent for its past, and is now an exemplary liberal democracy and model global citizen. Reuters said West Germany accepted 13 million people from Soviet-ruled Eastern Europe after After WW II.
  • The countries in the Middle East that have taken in refugees are often not the richest: Jordan has taken in over a million, Lebanon a huge number, Turkey 1.5 million, but Saudi Arabia and Egypt have barely taken any.
  • If you put fruits and salads at the start of a buffet, people are more likely to eat good things. If you want people to save money, make the saving the default option.
  • An Australian study found that the longer humanitarian migrants stay in a country, the more likely they are to start businesses than other migrants. Historical refugees include Chopin, Freud, Einstein and Madeleine Albright.

John Sawers at Macro Advisory Partners said:

  • The world is chaotic and dangerous due to the rise of ISIS, change in terrorist tactics to killing in shopping malls – much harder to stop – and cyber attacks, where we have no ability to deal with in a conventional way.
  • The great bulk of migrant refugees are people genuinely fleeing conflict. The bigger problem is our citizens visiting Syria and returning radicalized and terrorist.
  • The intelligence communities in America, Britain, France and elsewhere have been successful in combating terrorism, but one cannot have a 100% record.
  • Iran is transitioning from a revolutionary to a more normal state. Rouhani et al have a different vision for Iran’s security and future than the hard-liners in the Revolutionary Guard and Quds Force. Iranians, especially the young, have little respect for the concept of a revolutionary state, and just want a normal life.
  • Putin understands that any prospect of sanctions being lifted requires him to cooperate with the Ukrainian government, while the West has to understand that Ukraine holds a special place for Russians.
  • China is trying to change to a more market-led economy. The US relationship with China is key for global stability for the rest of this century. A failed China is a much more dangerous China.
  • Obama inherited the entrée from hell, but has been calm, steady and reliable. His initiatives on Iran and Cuba are important in normalizing those countries.

Naguib Sawiris said:

  • The war in Syria will not end in months or even years.
  • The whole world is united in identifying the enemy as ISIS, who are killers and gangsters.

David Halpern at Behavioral Insights Team said:

  • Peer pressure is effective in encouraging people to pay their taxes, especially if you tell them that most people in their area pay on time, and even more effective when you tell them they are one of the few who have yet to pay.
  • Most things that governments do actually concerns behavior.
  • People are much more likely to do something if they plan ahead, think more precisely and concretely, when, where and how they are going to do something. Asking questions in a different way makes people much more effective in their job search.
  • If you want people to save money, make saving the default option – as a result, more than 5 million Brits now save. 
  • Most healthy years lost are due to behavioral factors.
  • Economies bounce up and down because of what we think others are doing, and we are often wrong in those perceptions.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/

or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1509/13/fzgps.01.html

Petrostate Cash Crunch Continues Amid Oil Collapse, Proxy Wars – Zero Hedge 09-07-15

Salient to Investors:

Tyler Durden writes:

  • ZIRP has allowed insolvent US oil producers to stay in business and help keep oil prices low, and now Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also tapping the credit markets.
  • Saudi Arabia needs crude at $100 to finance their budget deficit estimated to be 20% of GDP.
  • Qatar’s budget deficit is only 0.7% of GDP and in the best financial shape relative to its neighbors.
  • Saudi Arabia and Qatar are highly likely to be drawn further into the conflict in Syria.

Read the full article at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-07/petrostate-cash-crunch-continues-amid-oil-collapse-proxy-wars

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 08-30-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • The US economy has recovered nicely.
  • A 2014 UCLA study found that many black and Latino students face almost total isolation from white and Asian students and middle-class peers.
  • Much more Saudi oil wealth has gone into pernicious causes over the last 30 years than Iranian oil wealth.
  • Tharman Shanmugaratnam says half of the Muslim population in Britain lives in the bottom 10% of its neighborhoods by income.
  • The UN estimates the average woman needs to have 2.1 children to maintain the population of a developed country. Every EU country is below that level, though France has one of the best rates in Europe. Demographers say that it is difficult to get people to have children using just financial incentives.
  • Pew predicts that by 2050, populations in Greece, Portugal and Germany will have dropped by double-digit percentages. The UN predicts over-65s in Europe will increase to more than 25% of the population by 2050, Japan’s will increase to more than 33%.
  • The US will be demographically vibrant and growing for decades. Pew predicts that America’s population will grow by 27% from 2010 to 2050 due to immigration and a relatively younger population. The CDC says the US fertility rate hit a record low in 2013.
  • The World Wildlife Fund says half of the earth’s wildlife has been lost in the past 40 years.

Elliott Abrams at the Council on Foreign Relations said:

  • Obama is turning away from America’s responsibilities around the world. Poland, Czechoslovakia, the Balkans, feel less safe facing Russia; Australia, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan feel less safe facing China; Israel, the Gulf Arabs feel less safe facing Iran.
  • The US is asking for nothing and getting nothing on human rights in the Iran and Cuba deals.

Peter Beinart at Haaretz, New America and CNN said:

  • The polls show Obama is much more popular around the world than George W. Bush, while America is more popular than it was.
  • The Iran nuclear deal is a major accomplishment akin to Nixon and China.

Meghan O’Sullivan at Harvard said:

  • Strategic restraint might make sense in a world where the US does not have much at stake, or US allies are active in promoting US interests, or where world order is self-perpetuating; but we don’t live in that world. International order is not in good shape and the Middle East is significantly worse off than 7 years ago.
  • The Iran nuclear deal has very real flaws; including the fact that Iranians get all their benefits up front in exchange for a promise to stick to the deal for a decade or longer.

Gideon Rose at Foreign Affairs said:

  • The international order is not fraying. The US is the world’s strongest power by leap years, with a defense budget equal to the next 7 nations combined. The US and its allies account for 75% of global defense spending. Core allegiances and alliances in the major industrial and economic centers are intact and thriving.
  • Much of the Middle East is no longer a core American strategic interest and US direct involvement there is not necessarily improving things.
  • The Iran nuclear deal is not great but is dramatically better than all the realistic alternatives.

General Stanley McChrystal said:

  • In combat, soldiers are much more frightened of the enemy than their sergeant.
  • You want personnel confident enough in their relationships and in what they do to be able to operate effectively.
  • Personnel must have confidence in the competence of their leaders, and more importantly their values.
  • The confidence of personnel is undermined when they see a difference between what senior management says it will do and what it actually does, or if they believe senior leadership is uninformed.
  • Key to being a leader is personal discipline and empathy.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1508/30/fzgps.01.html