CGM’s Heebner Bets Against Apple Shares as Institutions Cut – Bloomberg 02-26-14

Salient to Investors:

Kenneth Heebner at CGM Focus Fund shorted Apple during Q4 2013.

Morgan Stanley said institutional ownership of Apple shares has been declining as funds question the company’s ability to increase revenue long-term – the 30 largest stockholders own a record low 30 percent of shares outstanding, versus the peak of 40 percent in 2009.

Read the full article at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/cgm-s-heebner-bets-against-apple-as-institutional-investors-cut.html

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Is the rally nearing an end? 10 savants weigh in – InvestmentNews 05-06-13

Salient to Investors:

Larry Fink at BlackRock says investors should be heavily invested in equities due to its fair value at a 15.5 P/E ratio for the S&P 500 and good earnings season.

Jeffrey Gundlach at DoubleLine said in mid-April that he expects a catastrophic failure because the developed world since 2005 has been living on a debt-financed economic upturn that is unsustainable and which cannot be paid back. Gundlach started buying 10-yr T-notes in February.

Josh Brown said half the market has not kept up with the major averages so now is a great time to be selective.

Ken Heebner at Capital Growth Mgmt said US growth will get stronger because of the positive impact of rising house prices which could push stock prices up 50 percent in 2 or 3 years.

Byron Wein at Blackstone in March said the market is beginning to verge on the euphoric, outstripping so-so economic data, and eventually the fundamentals, including Washington and earnings disappointments, will take over and the market will become a more reasonable place.

Gregory Harmon at Dragonfly Capital Mgmt says a simple Harmonic pattern shows that a reasonable target on the Dow is 16,810 and 20,770 is possible.

Doug Kass at Seabreeze says this is a solely Fed-driven rally, and earnings continues to be challenging but the market hasn’t cared because global monetary policy is dominating the revenue and earnings lethargy. Kass said we are in a P/E driven market, which are always far more difficult to predict than earnings driven markets.

Bob Doll says the path of least resistance is higher, with ideal conditions in an economy operating on only 5 or 6 out of 8 cylinders which keeps a lid on interest rates. Doll said other assets offer little return so if the weak fundamentals remain intact, any correction will only be a few percent.

Laszlo Birinyi is bullish and expects the S&P 500 going to 1900 in a series of steps.

Warren Buffett said we will see markets far higher in our lifetimes, fueled by the retention of earnings by American industry, and US growth.

Read the full article at http://www.investmentnews.com/gallery/20130508/FREE/508009999/PH

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Ken Heebner Bets 21% of His Stock Fund Against Treasuries – February 26 2013

Salient to Investors:

Kenneth Heebner at the CGM Focus Fund has bet 21 percent of his find on a decline in U.S. Treasuries as the growing US economy eventually prompts the Fed to boost interest rates. At the end of 2012, the fund was 29 percent invested in banks, 24 percent in homebuilders.

Heebner said the rebound in housing will translate into a strong financial position for consumers, boosting the US economy and prompting the Fed to end quantitative easing.

Nassim Taleb and Jim Rogers have recommended betting against Treasuries.

Stephen Stanley at Pierpont Securities said this is a good time to short treasuries if you have staying power – over a shorter time period, you are fighting the Fed.

Scott Minerd at Guggenheim Partners said QE compares to a similar program from 1942 until 1951 when the Fed vowed to take action should interest rates climb above 2.25 percent. Minerd said the Fed may be forced to keep rates low longer than anticipated, for fear of roiling markets and causing another credit crunch – possibly another 5 to 6 years of this so you could be short for many years before benefitting.

Read the full article at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/ken-heebner-bets-21-of-his-stock-fund-against-treasuries.html

 

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Heebner at Bottom for Fourth Year in Five Sticks to Bet – Bloomberg 06-28-12

Salient to Investors:

Kenneth Heebner said the U.S. is poised to outperform most countries – lower growth in Asia and Europe will lower oil and commodity prices, a de facto tax cut for U.S. consumers. Heebner sees forces driving the U.S. in a positive direction – the real estate bust has created pent-up demand for housing that eventually will lead to another surge in building.  Heebner was 21 percent in banks and 12 percent in airlines at the end of Q1.

Heebner says pessimism historically has been associated with maximum opportunity for investing – currently the enormous negative publicity about U.S. banks contradicts their improving fundamentals.

Heebner said he sees the mainstream in the distance.

John Taylor at FX Concepts says the U.S. is being dragged into recession by Europe.

Neel Kashkari at PIMCO says the U.S. economy is slowing, and unemployment is worsening.

Read the full article at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-28/heebner-at-bottom-for-fourth-year-in-five-sticks-to-bet.html