Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 05-29-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakari said:

The US has re-enforced its position as the world’s leading economic, technological, military and political power, and energy superpower.

The US dominates virtually all leading industries including social networks, mobile telecom, nano and bio technology.

The US is at the cutting edge of green technology.

The US is demographically vibrant, while all its major economic peers, including Japan, Europe and China, face certain population decline.

The US dominates the military and political world. The US has 10 aircraft carriers versus China’s one secondhand Ukrainian ship. The US counts numerous allies while China has only North Korea.

The US will not have a real rival for a very long time. However, China’s share of global GDP in 1990 was 1.7% versus 15% today, and developing countries accounted for 20% of world GDP in 1990 versus 40% today.

China’s global influence is large and growing – able to create the Asian infrastructure investment bank over US objections. Regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey are rising.

Joshua Cooper Ramo says the US dominates all 9 global tech platforms, including Google Chrome, Facebook, and Microsoft Office.

Stephen Brooks and William Wohlforth say that China is the US’s only rising rival, but only when it comes to GDP: half its exports are imported for assembly and re-exported.

Bret Stephens at the Wall Street Journal said Donald Trump is the biggest loser in presidential history, manifestly unqualified to be president in any way.

Pro Publica says apartheid schools (schools with 1% or fewer white students) more than doubled since 1988 to 6,727 schools in 2011. GAO reports K-12 public schools with extremely high percentages of poor, black or Hispanic kids comprised 16% in 2013-2014 versus 9% in 2000-2001.

Paul Tractenberg at Rutgers says that between 2000 and 2013, the number of Americans living in high poverty neighborhoods rose from 7.2 million to 13.8 million.

Rucker Johnson at Berkeley said:

More than 1 in 4 poor blacks live in extreme poverty neighborhoods versus 1 in 13 for poor whites.

Blacks that attended desegregated elementary schools were more likely to graduate and 22% less likely to be incarcerated as adults. Blacks who spent 5 years in desegregated schools saw their health improved to the equivalence of being 7 years younger, and earned 30% more than those not attending desegregated schools.

The narrowing of the achievement gap and increased success of black students had no negative effect on whites on any metric.

Reid Hoffman at LinkedIn said:

The cost of sequencing the genome is falling faster than Moore’s Law.

The US has a unique advantage not in start-up culture but in blitz scaling. The majority of the super interesting tech companies are on the west coast, primarily Silicon Valley, an area 25 square miles with 8.5 million people.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1605/29/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 10-04-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • Russia’s move in Syria is a desperate effort to shore up one of its only foreign allies and risks making it the great Satan with jihadists everywhere. However, Putin has at least a clearer strategy in Syria than Obama.
  • An US army of less than 30,000 men could easily defeat ISIS but then own problem territory in Syria.
  • Historically, the US when allied with a local force that was capable and viewed as legitimate has succeeded, but without such local allies, has not.
  • Syria will never be an intermingled country ever again whatever happens.
  • Code.org estimates that by 2020, there will be only 400,000 computer science students to fill the 1.4 million computing jobs in the US.
  • Liberal arts are important in teaching creativity, analytic thought and the joy of learning.

Jeff Colvin at Fortune said:

  • Studying humanities could become as valuable as a science degree because some jobs will always be done by “relationship workers”, the ones that emphasize social interaction – the need to interact with others is connected to our very survival, which is why we would prefer to see a real doctor or choose to work in teams.
  • From 2001 to 2009, the McKenzie Global Institute found that jobs involving human interaction, e.g. nurses and lawyers, increased by nearly 5 million in the US, while transaction and production jobs fell.
  • Science and technology disciplines are still crucial, but the humanities strengthen the deep human abilities critical for the success of most people far more than engineering or computer science.

George Soros said that Europe is in a state of disintegration, which started in 2008 and has become non-linear with problems with Greece, Ukraine, migration, and Putin’s Russia.

President Bill Clinton said:

  • Not very long ago, Europeans were killing each other in large numbers. The EU is a miracle, but in times of insecurity, fueled by both political problems and the absence of economic growth, negative identity politics tend to trump positive identity politics.
  • The issue of negative versus positive identity when you have slow growth is also true in America.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1510/04/fzgps.01.html

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 05-24-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • Britain, which created the world we live in, has become parochial and has essentially resigned as a global power: a tragedy for us all.
  • The Royal United Services Institute predicts that the British army could shrink to 50,000, smaller than at any point since the 1770s and equivalent to the size of the NYPD.
  • Britain’s Foreign Office budget, down by more than a quarter under PM Cameron, will fall further.
  • More than a third of Londoners were born outside the UK, and the city continues to seek investment from China, Russia, Arabia, and others.
  • The US military budget is becoming like that all American institutions, largely devoted to pensions and health care.
  • College in America costs more than 13 times what it did in 1978, far outpacing inflation and health care costs. Student loan debt has more than tripled in the past decade to over $1 trillion.
  • Germany and Denmark offer free college education. Germany mainly through high taxes and with universities that do not offer billion dollar student union buildings, huge sports facilities, or a lot of student housing.
  • The two paths to solving America’s education cost crisis are a) the government paying or reining in the costs, and b) the use of technology. Technology won’t be enough so state governments  must fund state universities, the real highways to the middle class in America.

David Miliband at the International Rescue Committee said:

  • As the Syria war continues, the choices get worse, and the dangers of inaction become clearer and clearer.
  • America may not want to have anything to do with ISIS et al, but they will end up having something to do with us. America cannot have the blessings of globalization with none of the burdens.
  • Without American leadership for a rules-based international system, we have a vacuum, and thus danger.
  • China is not trying to upend the international order and it worries about the meaning of America’s decline.

Gideon Rose at Foreign Affairs said:

  • The real problem in Iraq and Syria is not ISIS, but the lack of any kind of political order to oppose it.
  • The US has to show that it actually cares about maintaining and reviving the liberal international order.

Danielle Pletka at the American Enterprise Institute said:

  • The US left Iraq in 2011 with comity between the Shia and the Sunni.
  • The narrative of Sunni vs. Shiite, Persian empire vs. Ottoman empire, is enormously detrimental to US interests, so the more Saudi Arabia et al support the Sunnis, and Iran support the Shias, the more likely is conflict.
  • Ultimately ISIS, al Qaeda, Jabbath al-Nusra will come for us.
  • Even if we wanted to, and even if the Middle East was not on fire, the US no longer has the necessary resources to fully resource a pivot to Asia.
  • At the end of the day, the American electorate values security and genuineness in a candidate.
  • The US defense budget is a declining piece of a declining pie: 50% of which is spent on personnel. The US does not have the carriers, the attack ships, the refueling capability, the new technology to be in Asia in the way that we need to, or to contend in the Middle East. 

Ian Bremmer at Eurasia Group said:

  • There is a huge generational divide in America over its role as a global policeman, with the younger you get, the more Americans want to leave things alone.
  • Defeating ISIS with no boots on the ground does not stand.
  • ISIS is a much greater threat in the region and to Europe than the United States – America has the energy production now.
  • China, not the US, is the one country in the world with a global strategy, creating institutions like the BRICS Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Bank, and spending over a trillion dollars on infrastructure and equities to align other countries economically towards China over the long-term.
  • With 37% of the world’s defense budget, the US is capable of pivoting to Asia, but it requires US leaders that engage in consistency, and a president who believes that strategy matters and is a top priority.

Jeff Hawkins at Redwood Neuroscience Institute said:

  • Artificial Intelligence is not a real threat for the foreseeable future because machine intelligence is not about recreating humans, if that was even possible.
  • Machines will get smarter than humans, like IBM’s Deep Blue or Watson, but the idea of a runaway intelligence explosion is nonsense – brains take a long time to train.
  • There is nothing we are doing today, that is dangerous, that we could not undo.
  • It is impossible to answer now what will be the big benefit to the world of AI.

Charles Murray said:

  • Ordinary people cannot live their lives as they see fit anymore and live under a constant presumption that they need permission.
  • The number of stupid, pointless regulations has just grown astronomically. The Federal Code of Regulations is now 175,000 pages.
  • The only time drivers get stopped by police going 5 miles over the speed limit is when they are on a deserted stretch of highway. On an ordinary interstate, 70% of vehicles are going 6 miles over the speed limit.

Igarape says:

  • 10 countries account for 58% of the world’s homicides: Brazil, India, Nigeria, Mexico, the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa, Venezuela, Colombia, Pakistan and the US, the world’s deadliest Western democracy. Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco, all have rates lower than that of the USA.
  • Countries with a very low homicide rate include Monaco, Liechtenstein, and Singapore.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript

at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1505/24/fzgps.01.html

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 05-03-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • The US justice system is a rubber stamp for the prosecution due to America overreacting to the crime wave of the 1970s and enacting bad legislation.
  • The vast prison industrial complex lobbies aggressively, which means more arrests, lockups, and prisons.

Conrad Black says:

  • The US has 25% of the world’s prisoners but only 5% of the global population.
  • Because of the plea bargain, US prosecutors win 95% of their cases, 90% without ever having to go to trial: vs. a conviction rate of 60% in Canada and 50% in Britain.
  • Judge Jed Rackoff says the US criminal justice system bears little relationship to what the founding fathers contemplated, to what movies/tv portrays, and to what the average American believes.

Thomas Erdbrink at The New York Times said:

  • Iran’s hardliners are unlike the hardliners in the West and take their cue from Ayatollah Ali- Khamenei, the great architect behind the nuclear talks.
  • Ayatollah Khamenei is very well aware of the wish of his people for sanctions to be lifted.
  • Rouhani and Zarif’s limited power is demonstrated by their inability to get Jason Rezaian released.

The Global Burden of Disease Study found:

  • In 2013, more people died from drowning than from natural disasters, more from road injuries than from malaria, twice from suicide than from breast cancer, and nearly as many from falls as from leukemia and prostate cancer combined.
  • UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman had very high injury road injury death rates – Oman twice the global average vs. Sweden with a quarter of the global average.
  • Since 1990, India and China accounted for half of all global suicides; a rising number in India, a falling number in China.
  • US maternal mortality rates are rising and are much higher than in other developed countries.
  • In 2010, Rwanda’s biggest risk factor for premature death and disability was indoor air pollution from cooking.

 

Blaine Harden said:

  • The Kim family dynasty in North Korea survived its creator – unlike every other totalitarian system – because its family system institutionalized Stalinist tools of control.
  • Kim Jong-un is very rational, very cunning – like his father and grandfather – and good at purging and eliminating challengers. He projects an image of being wild to inhibit challengers.
  • North Korea is exactly where it was 15 years ago, with no indication that the family’s rule is in any imminent danger.

Robert Putnam said:

  • The unbelievable contrast between rich and poor US kids is new and nationwide, and a result of the growing wealth inequality and segregation along class lines.
  • There is growing gap between classes in terms of how much time their parents spend reading to them, a growing and large gap between how much money parents spend for summer camp, piano lessons etc – 7 times as much for the average rich kid vs. the average poor kid.
  • Gaps in quality of schooling, church attendance are growing. Social mobility is low, as seen in getting the college degree with the necessary credentials.
  • Kids with high-test scores and low parental income are less likely to graduate from college than rich kids with lower scores.
  • Universal early childhood education works, and especially so for poor kids.
  • Charging for extracurricular activities – which have a payoff with employers – has resulted in poor kids dropping band and chorus and football, etc.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript

at http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1505/03/fzgps.01.html

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 03-29-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • The pattern of Yemen’s descent into chaos is likely to repeat, possibly in more significant countries like Egypt. That pattern is repressive, secular regimes backed by the West become illegitimate, become more repressive to survive, and whose opposition becomes more extreme, religious and violent.
  • Learning how to read deeply, write compelling prose, and analyze well are essential skills in order to thrive in the world. The rapid trend away from majors like English and history and philosophy to skill-based ones closer to engineering or computer science is terribly short-sighted. How to think, read, study, write and are much more useful in the long run.
  • The genius of the American system is giving people the broad liberal education that allows people to start new companies, switch careers. The coding learned 10 years ago is obsolete today.
  • US education has never tested well against other countries – in the middle of the pack in 1964 and still in the middle of the pack. Yet the US has dominated innovation, research, new industries over the past five decades.
  • Israel is reported to have more NASDAQ listed companies than any country other than the US and China yet also does very badly on international tests, and worse than the US.
  • Israel and the US share non-hierarchical educational systems where you can challenge the professor, follow your passion, ask questions. Many high-tech people including Zuckerberg and Bezos put a lot in a liberal arts education.

Richard Haass at the Council on Foreign Relations said:

  • We are in for 30 years of religious war in the Middle East, if not more, with the US having to play a modest role managing at the margins.
  • Saudi Arabia is vulnerable because it is only a matter of time before it is challenged by the Islamic State.
  • Iraq is breaking into 3 separate countries – Iranian Shia, Kurdish, and Sunni Arab.
  • We cannot afford to live in a world where Iran has nuclear weapons and several other countries in the region follow suit.

Joseph Cirincione at Ploughshares Fund said:

  • Japan is a threshold power and can build a nuclear bomb within months.
  • US strikes on Iran would have to be weeks of hundreds of sorties, and cause a major war in the Middle East that would make the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq look like warm-up acts.
  • We cannot live in a world where Iran has nuclear weapons and several other countries in the region follow suit.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali said

  • Islam is in crisis and is decidedly not a religion of peace – it needs a reformation on the scale that Christianity had in the 16th century.
  • 70 percent of all fatalities in all conflicts involving Muslims are Muslims.
  • The strategy of let’s not call IS Islamic started in the Muslim world 3 to 5 decades ago and hasn’t worked.
  • To persuade Muslims to give up the 5 core concepts within Islam that are holding them back, the US should ideologically confront Islam with its ideas of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness as it has done in the past. Theological reformation has to come from within.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript

at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1503/29/fzgps.01.html

Newly minted MBA? It’s the best job market in years – BBC Capital 03-02-15

Salient to Investors:

Business schools are reporting strong markets for graduating students in full-time jobs.

Barbara Hewitt at Wharton said only 4.2% of last year’s graduating class of seniors were still seeking employment 4 to 6 months after graduation, among their lowest percentages in the last 20 years, while 2015’s figure is likely to be similar.

The Graduate Management Admission Council said 9 in 10 companies surveyed that intend to hire MBA candidates say they will bring on as many, or even more people in 2015 than in 2014, while more than 50% plan to increase starting annual salaries – nearly two-thirds said their companies were growing.

Read the full article at http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20150227-bull-market-for-us-business-grads

Click here to receive free and immediate email alerts of the latest forecasts.

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 12-07-14

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • The Department of Defense cost overruns on one weapons system are more than the total defense budget of Britain and France put together.
  • The US spends more on defense than the next 8 nations put together including China and Russia.  Since 9/11 America has been too fearful, too reactive, too tactical in its foreign policy.
  • Ash Carter has already been a reformer and John McCain will soon be the chairman of the Armed Services Committee, but the problem is so immense that it is probably too much to hope for more than small victories – the Military Industrial Congressional Complex lives on.
  • Robert Gates wrote that the Pentagon is a gargantuan labyrinth of democracy, with 40% of its spending going to overhead.
  • If rebels don’t really want to fight unless you support them, it means they are not going to fight.
  • Obama fundamentally sees the Middle East as a hell hole that will suck America dry and so will never embrace a very ambitious strategy.
  • Northern Europe, South Korea and Singapore draw their teachers from the top third of the graduating college class versus the bottom third in the US.

Chrystia Freeland said:

  • The economic crisis in Russia will worsen, partly by sanctions, partly by the oil price fall and the tremendous capital flight and brain drain outside of Russia.
  • Russian businessmen are incredibly unhappy as real businesses and fortunes are dissolving.
  • The Syria war is descending into warlordism.
  • Western leaders have forgotten how to deal with complexity and really long-term situations, and with situations where there are no good guys.

David Rothkopf at FP Group said:

  • Putin’s budget ignores economic reality in that it anticipates the price of oil being $100 and ignores the $85 billion in capital flight in the past year.
  • Human nature, national interests and all of history tells us that the US’s tacit alliance with Iran in fighting ISIS must be linked to the nuclear negotiations.
  • This is really an Iraq/Syria war, which is even more complicated than the Syria war.

Richard Haass at the Council on Foreign Relations said:

  • The real sanction against Russia is nothing that the US and Europeans have done but is oil prices around $60.
  • Russia has enormous reserves so Putin does not have to do things to trigger more sanctions or give up his goals of a greater Russia.
  • You cannot want peace more than the negotiators want to make peace or make war more than the locals want to make war, so do not  expect a wonderful moderate Syrian opposition any time soon.
  • US bombing alone is inadequate because we need to a ground partner to take and control the ground.
  • The powerful trends in the world include the diffusion of power in many forms to many types of actors, the decentralization of decision-making partly because American reliability is not what it was due to globalization, and a Middle East that is unraveling.
  • The post-WW I order won’t be put back together.
  • China has many internal challenges so we are seeing some progress in the region.

Robin Wright at the Wilson Center said:

  • In the past year we have achieved a level of dialogue with Iran that is unprecedented since the 1979 Revolution.
  • The danger in the Middle East is always that diplomacy is overtaken by events on the ground.
  • ISIS is the most complicated war in the Middle East since the modern borders established after WWI.
  • Aleppo is the New York of Syria and on the verge of being lost.
  • ISIS and the Assad government are not fighting very much against each other.
  • The rebels are the weakest of the three forces, so the prospect of building them up is tremendously hard.

The Wall Street Journal found 45% more police killings than reported in official FBI statistics.

ProPublica found that young black men were 21 times more likely than white men to be shot dead by cops between 2010 and 2012. Blacks are 3 times as likely to be arrested for drug offences than whites even though data shows that they do not use drugs at anything like 3 times the rate as whites.

Sentencing Project found:

  • Racial minorities are more likely than white Americans to be arrested and then more likely to be convicted and more likely to face stiff sentences.
  • African-American males are 6 times more likely to be incarcerated than white males and 2.5 times more likely than Hispanic males.
  • At current trends, 1 of every 3 black American males born today can expect to go to prison in his lifetime versus 1 out of every 6 Latino males and 1 out of every 17 white males.
  • The American justice system is not racist by design but is split between justice for the rich and justice for the poor.

Joel Klein said:

  • US education is in really bad shape – while 35% graduate from high school ready for college some 20% do not graduate and will exacerbate the massive inequality.
  • The US teaching model is failing – half of teachers quit in the first 5 years – so we need more demanding requirements to get into the profession. Successful countries educate their teachers much more in content knowledge and classroom practice than the US and have a much more professional view of their role.
  • We need to give every schoolchild choices.
  • The technological revolution impacted the whole world but missed education.
  • In education, America will do the right thing in the end after trying everything else.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript

at http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1412/07/fzgps.01.html

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 11-16-14

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • Russia is a great power in decline accounting for only 3.4% of global GDP versus China’s near 16% and almost 4 x Japan’s and 5 x Germany’s.
  • China’s very different approach to foreign policy constitutes the most significant and dangerous shift in international politics since the end of the Cold War.
  • Chinese nationalism has risen sharply. The Christian Science Monitor found that the number of anti-western polemics in the official “People’s Daily” so far in 2014 is 3x that versus the same period a year ago.
  • China has moved from being anti-American to post-American.

Henry Kissinger says China has never been comfortable with the idea of a global system of equal states.

Elizabeth Economy at the Council on Foreign Relations

  • China was ready for Xi Jinping, a leader who wants to project Chinese power.
  • 670,000 premature deaths in China are reported to be from air quality.
  • The insidious side of Chinese nationalism will not tolerate a diversity of opinion and will chill the creativity and innovation that they want to support, while undermining its efforts to become a global leader with a shared vision for the Asia-Pacific.

David Lampton at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

  • China has crushing domestic problems, with demographics working against it.
  • China will be increasingly cooperative on issues like climate change, but will continue to push its sovereignty.

Stuart Butler at Brookings said:

  • More people are enrolling into online MOOCs than into actual colleges.
  • Student tuition debt in the US exceeds credit card debt.
  • Today’s online education is not our grandfather’s online education – it is completely transformed.
  • Traditional universities have got to rethink fundamentally what they do, how much they do, how long an education should be, whether it should be all at one place.
  • It has taken a while for business to wake up to what is going on in higher education – very soon colleges and universities will be seen as the equivalent of assembly companies.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1411/16/fzgps.01.html

 

College Debt Leaves Generation X Grads Less Wealthy Than Parents – Bloomberg 09-18-14

Salient to Investors:

Pew Charitable Trusts said:

  • 82% of American Gen Xers – those born between 1965 and 1980 – with at least a bachelor’s degree earn more than their parents did, yet only 30% have greater wealth.
  • 70% of Xers without a college education earn more than their parents did but almost half had higher wealth.
  • College graduates in Gen X have far more debt than their peers without degrees.
  • 40% of upwardly income-mobile college grads hold education debt, with a median balance of $25,000.
  • College graduates tend to come from families with more wealth, so have a higher bar for surpassing the prior generation than those with lesser education.
  • 75% of Gen X households had family incomes higher than their parents did after adjusting for family size, but only 36 percent had exceeded their parents’ wealth.

Diana Elliott at Pew’s Economic Mobility Project said to the extent that Gen Xers are still paying student-loan debt and do not have the wealth accumulated to invest in themselves, they also do not have that money to invest in their children.

Lauren Asher at the Institute for College Access & Success said student loans have become and more and more of a necessity because the costs that students and families are expected to cover outpace family incomes and available grants.

Neil Howe said the youngest workers have time to build wealth and right the ship, but that may not be true of their older counterparts, who are well into their economic life-cycle, especially Gen Xers.

Read the full article at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-18/college-debt-leaves-generation-x-grads-less-wealthy-than-parents.html

Click here to receive free and immediate email alerts of the latest forecasts.

 

Fewer Millennial Moms Show U.S. Birth Rate Drop Lasting – Bloomberg 09-16-14

Salient to Investors:

  • US millennial women are holding off on motherhood, which bodes well for their economic and social mobility and that of their future children.
  • Isabel Sawhill at Brookings said lower US birth rates are permanent, even if some of the recession-induced decline reverses. Preventing unexpected births increases a child’s lifetime income by $52,000, while college and high school graduation rates both increase, and the chances of the child becoming a teen parent or a criminal decline.
  • DHHS said 2.66% of teens had babies in 2013, down 57% since 1991, while the mean age of mothers at their first child was 25.8 years in 2012 versus 21.4 years in 1970. The birth rate for women aged 20 to 24 reached a record low in 2013, while the rate for women aged 25 to 29 declined.
  • Amalia Miller at University of Virginia said that for each year motherhood is delayed, career earnings increase by 9%, work experience by 6%, and average wage rates by 3%.
  • Stephanie Ventura at the National Center for Health Statistics said the US teen birth rate still remains higher than many other developed countries, but we have made tremendous progress.
  • Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine at the NBER said media influences and the severity of the recent recession contributed to the reduction in teen births.
  • Philip Cohen at University of Maryland said there will be a temporary recovery in birth rates as the economy improves, as more women take advantage of the benefits that work and education bring and women have fewer children and later.
  • Dean Maki at Barclays said that all else being equal, declining fertility rates signal slower economic growth because of lower labor-supply growth.
  • BLS said that by age 27, 32% of women have a bachelor’s degree versus 24% of men.
  • The National Center for Education Statistics said young adults with a bachelor’s degree earned $46,900 in 2012, 57 percent more than those with a high school diploma.
  • William Emmons at FRB St Louis said future trends for human-capital development, income growth and ultimately consumer spending are positive due to increasing millennial women’s college attainment in absolute terms and relative to men.
  •  The Council of Economic Advisers said employed married women’s earnings are 44% of total family income versus 37% in the 1970s.
  • Mark Mather at the Population Reference Bureau said US fertility rates will continue to decline as households become increasingly dependent on female earnings due to the big increase in college women and wives increasingly earning more than their husbands, along with a bigger cost for women to have kids now.

Read the full article at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-16/fewer-millennial-moms-show-u-s-birth-rate-drop-lasting.html

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