Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 05-29-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakari said:

The US has re-enforced its position as the world’s leading economic, technological, military and political power, and energy superpower.

The US dominates virtually all leading industries including social networks, mobile telecom, nano and bio technology.

The US is at the cutting edge of green technology.

The US is demographically vibrant, while all its major economic peers, including Japan, Europe and China, face certain population decline.

The US dominates the military and political world. The US has 10 aircraft carriers versus China’s one secondhand Ukrainian ship. The US counts numerous allies while China has only North Korea.

The US will not have a real rival for a very long time. However, China’s share of global GDP in 1990 was 1.7% versus 15% today, and developing countries accounted for 20% of world GDP in 1990 versus 40% today.

China’s global influence is large and growing – able to create the Asian infrastructure investment bank over US objections. Regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey are rising.

Joshua Cooper Ramo says the US dominates all 9 global tech platforms, including Google Chrome, Facebook, and Microsoft Office.

Stephen Brooks and William Wohlforth say that China is the US’s only rising rival, but only when it comes to GDP: half its exports are imported for assembly and re-exported.

Bret Stephens at the Wall Street Journal said Donald Trump is the biggest loser in presidential history, manifestly unqualified to be president in any way.

Pro Publica says apartheid schools (schools with 1% or fewer white students) more than doubled since 1988 to 6,727 schools in 2011. GAO reports K-12 public schools with extremely high percentages of poor, black or Hispanic kids comprised 16% in 2013-2014 versus 9% in 2000-2001.

Paul Tractenberg at Rutgers says that between 2000 and 2013, the number of Americans living in high poverty neighborhoods rose from 7.2 million to 13.8 million.

Rucker Johnson at Berkeley said:

More than 1 in 4 poor blacks live in extreme poverty neighborhoods versus 1 in 13 for poor whites.

Blacks that attended desegregated elementary schools were more likely to graduate and 22% less likely to be incarcerated as adults. Blacks who spent 5 years in desegregated schools saw their health improved to the equivalence of being 7 years younger, and earned 30% more than those not attending desegregated schools.

The narrowing of the achievement gap and increased success of black students had no negative effect on whites on any metric.

Reid Hoffman at LinkedIn said:

The cost of sequencing the genome is falling faster than Moore’s Law.

The US has a unique advantage not in start-up culture but in blitz scaling. The majority of the super interesting tech companies are on the west coast, primarily Silicon Valley, an area 25 square miles with 8.5 million people.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1605/29/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 05-22-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

US start-up activity has been slowing for about 30 years, dropping sharply over the last 10 years.

High taxes did not stop the burst of start-ups in the 1970s and early ’80s, and California’s taxes and regulation do not deter its vibrant entrepreneurial activity.

The Economist says the US has become less competitive in the last 20 years as red tape, licensing requirements and legal costs have risen dramatically. Large, entrenched firms are able to navigate regulations much better than new ones.

Leigh Buchanan says the percentage of start-ups launched by people in their 20s and 30s fell from 35% in 1996 to 18 percent in 2014, while the number of founders in their 50s and 60s has increased over the past decade.

Peter Bergen said terrorist groups will do well in the Middle East and in Europe for the foreseeable future.

George Shultz at Stanford said we live in a very dangerous time: instability almost everywhere, too many nuclear weapons, climate change.

The Federation of American Scientists estimated 15,350 nuclear weapons in early 2016, versus 70,300 30 years ago.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1605/22/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 05-15-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

Iraq is collapsing as a country.

Nation-building has failed in the Middle East.

Only 19% of millennials say they support capitalism.

Joshua Cooper Ramo at Kissinger Associates said that since 1951, 75 wall-like structures have been built around the world: 80% of them in the last 10 years.

Rana Foroohar said finance represents 4% of America’s jobs but 25% of corporate profits.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1605/15/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 05-08-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

Trump has formidable marketing skills but commerce is different from government. FDR, LBJ and Reagan achieved the most with virtually no commercial background. George W. Bush and Herbert Hoover, despite commercial backgrounds performed much worse as Presidents.

Robert Rubin said the single overriding objective in business is to make a profit, but government has to deal with many legitimate and often competing objectives. Rubin said not even the president has the kind of authority every CEO does.

Dan Senor said that Trump will lose in November, and that history shows that parties can bounce back.

David Frum at the Atlantic said:

An immense wreck is coming: political and cultural.

Trump has a terrible work ethic, is unfit and dangerous to be President.

Globalization’s losers have to be more fairly compensated by the winners.

Ross Douthat at The New York Times said:

Returning to a conservative normalcy is unlikely given Trump.

Nationalism is resurgent around the world for understandable reasons: dislocation, globalization, terrorism, Successful politicians, especially conservative politicians, have to address that anxiety.

Emily Miller at Washington Times said:

What happened is the people decided the Republican nominee, not Washington, not New York.

The country is unfamiliar with the depth of Trump’s policies.

Trump has the temperament to be president: thoughtful, calm, direct, listens very well.

David Order at MIT found that between 2002 and 2010, congressional districts negatively impacted by trade with China were more likely to elect more ideologically extreme representatives, either left or right of the officials they replaced – benefiting conservatives much more than liberals.

A Gallup poll found that 58% percent of Americans view foreign trade as an opportunity, 34% see it as a threat.

Yanis Varoufakis said:

Europe is in deep crisis and falling apart. The EU is heading for a break up, and new borders are being erected.

Instead of banking union, countries are re-nationalizing debt. The probability of losing your money in an Italian bank is increasing, in a German bank decreasing.

Bassem Youssef said:

The West mistakenly believes that it is better to deal with a military regime than a religious one. Military and religious factions work hand in hand.

All authoritarian regimes need to fall back on a reason for failure.

The IMF predicts:

US GDP to grow 2.4% in 2016.

Venezuelan GDP to contract 8% in 2016, and inflation to rise to 720% in 2016 and to 2,200% in 2017.

Myanmar’s GDP to 8.6% in 2016, the world’s best.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1605/08/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 05-01-16

Salient to Investors:

Parag Khanna said

America ultimately benefits from trade agreements.

Economists world-wide consider Mexico to be a hot emerging market.

The union of Canada, the US and Mexico is becoming more integrated and more productive than even the EU – a continental super power on an unrivaled scale.

China has twice as many countries with which it is the number one trading partner than America.

Connectedness is an extremely important way of measuring the leverage that a country can have.

In 10 years there will be more trade, more travel, more openness, more globalization.

 

The WHO says malaria mortality rates have fallen by 60% globally since 2000, and 21 countries will be malaria free in the next 5 years.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1605/01/fzgps.01.html

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