Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 11-29-15

Fareed Zakaria said:

ISIS is about religion and power, with increasing evidence its military backbone is comprised of high ranking officers from Saddam Hussein’s army.

ISIS has thrived primarily because of the rage and rebellion of the Sunnis of Iraq and Syria. ISIS is a messaging and recruitment machine, and so long as it can attract young Muslim men across the globe, ISIS is a growing danger to the world that is impossible to fully assess .

ISIS is like other radical Islamic groups, such as the Taliban, in that their allure fades once under their medieval barbarous governance.

Thomas Friedman at The New York Times said ISIS’ value proposition is to offer young men who have never held a job, power, or a girl’s hand, the promise of a wife, a salary, and to be lorded over others.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1511/15/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 11-22-15

Fareed Zakaria said:

ISIS is not as strong as current hysteria suggests, it is surrounded by deadly foes on all sides, its territory is shrinking, and its message is unpopular to most within its land.

The West has the advantage of counterterrorism, intelligence, airstrikes, drones, special operations, money, technology, know-how, and international cooperation, and time.

The New York Review of Books said 7%-8% of France is Muslim, but 70% of prisoners in French prisons are Muslim.

32,658 people worldwide were killed by terrorism in 2014 versus 33,000+ killed by firearms annually in the US.

Richard Haass at the Council on Foreign Relations said:

The pendulum has to swing towards greater collective security.

The days of once you get into Europe you are essentially free to move around are over. The balance between nationalism and Europeanism is about to move more in the direction of nationalism.

Immigration is central to the American narrative: we can vet people and make sure there is no security risk.

Rabbi Jonathan Sacks said that historically when religion turns violent, it begins by murdering its enemies and ends by murdering its co-religionists.

The Institute of Economics and Peace reported:

32,658 people were killed by terrorist attacks in 2014, 80% more than 2013.

78% of those killed were in Iraq, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan or Syria.

Boko Haram killed 6,644 people in 2014.

2.6% of deaths from terrorism occurred in the West in the past 15 years.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1511/22/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 11-15-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said that until there is an alternate, moderate Sunni government in Syria, ISIS will return there.

Michael Chertoff at Chertoff Group said:

The 9/11 generation of al Qaeda is largely gone. The new generation is focused on both large and small-scale attacks.

ISIS is recruiting in the West in a much more sophisticated way than the original al Qaeda; by appealing through social media to people who are disaffected or looking for something to affiliate with.

If we do not give a safe haven to the people caught between Assad/Shia and ISIS, they will wind up as either refugees or extremists.

Fawaz Gerges at London School of Economics said:

France has networks of local supporters of ISIS and al Qaeda groups.

The strategic goal of ISIS remains the near enemy, on the caliphate and on consolidating the Islamic State.

al Qaeda never numbered more than 3,000 fighters. ISIS has between 30,000 and 100,000 fighters including 4,000 Westerners.

ISIS is losing ground in Iraq and Syria and wants to use the attacks in Paris and Egypt to convince its followers it is winning.

David Frum at The Atlantic said:

Only 33% of the migrants who have tried to enter Europe since 2014 have been from Syria. The bigger problem is the complete collapse of any kind of orderly process in Europe.

It is impossible to resettle all the migrants in Europe. The vast majority will stay in Turkey and Lebanon so the focus should be on making their temporary refuges more humane; with electricity, water and things for people to do.

The US has no goals in Syria, and without goals, military methods cannot succeed.

Maajid Nawaz at Quilliam said attacks like those in Paris are the new normal: expects many more attacks, Britain is overdue for one.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1511/15/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 11-08-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

Sending 50 special troops into Syria will fail and the US will face backing down or doubling down in a few months.

Leslie Gelb and Richard Betts said Kennedy and Johnson never believed that incremental interventions in Vietnam would work but escalated involvement there anyway just to be seen to be doing something.

Obama will keep American intervention in Syria small and limited but leave his successor a terrible dilemma; like Kennedy did to Johnson.

Robert Papa at University of Chicago says ISIS only attacks foreign enemies when they interfere in the region: like with France, Canada, Russia.

The Legatum Institute’s 2015 prosperity index found that 94% of Canadians are satisfied with their personal freedom, versus 87% of Americans – the US ranked 15th.

Puerto Rico’s employment rate is 35%, poverty rate 45%, and 5%+ of its people have left in the last 10 years. Puerto Rico does not have the right to declare bankruptcy like US cities.

Larry Summers says:

Puerto Rico’s debt is too large to be paid off by further tax increases and spending cuts.

If powerful creditors succeed in thwarting Obama’s move to allow PR to file bankruptcy it would be a disaster for all Puerto Ricans.

Michael Hayden at the Chertoff Group said:

Al Qaeda has been working on undetectable bombs for a long time.

While Al Qaeda was strategic, thoughtful, hierarchical, and operated from the top down, ISIS is populist, tactical, opportunistic and works from the bottom up.

Al Qaeda attacked its far enemy in order to undermine its near enemies, while ISIS wants to wage war on its near enemies.

Fawaz Gerges at London School of Economics. said:

What changed in the last year was the marriage between a local insurgency in Sinai and ISIS, particularly ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

There is more than one insurgency in Egypt, and the danger is how many young Egyptians would migrate to ISIS. ISIS’s powerful narrative of ending civility, defying the West and Russia, resonates with young Sunni Muslims in the Middle East and the world.

Ian Bremmer at Eurasia Group said:

The game changer was Russia’s decision to go into Syria, not the Egypt air crash. Russia does not wage war for the public good but only when they get something in return. In Syria, Russia first wants to shore up Assad.

Most all of the political spectrum, including Russia and Egypt, gets support only from taking the hardest possible line domestically: expect no national dialogue with the opposition.

Ta-Nehisi Coates at The Atlantic cited Patrick Sharkey at NYU, who found that African-American families making $100k a year tend to live in the same sort of neighborhoods as white families making $30k.

Martin Wolf at The Financial Times said:

Immigration benefits migrants and the world as a whole but not necessarily a country – it depends very much on who are the immigrants. Britain is not good at building the infrastructure needed to accommodate new immigrants.

The fiscal effect of immigrants can be positive or negative depending on a country’s welfare state. In many countries, immigrants tend not to be very successful in being employed.

Donald Trump is wrong about everything, and some of his propositions are mad.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1511/08/fzgps.01.html

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Opinion: Investors avoiding both stocks and bonds looks bearish for market – MarketWatch 11-05-15

Salient to Investors:

Conrad de Aenlle at Conrad de Aenlle’s Funds for Thought writes:

Louise Yamada at Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors says ICI’s report of net withdrawals from both stock and bond mutual funds in July and August is a pattern not seen since the fall of 2008.

Todd Rosenbluth at S&P Capital IQ says mutual fund withdrawals around August were soaked up by ETFs: mom-and-pop investors accounted for the majority of mutual fund flows and institutions were behind the ETF flows – The trend away from mutual funds and toward ETFs represents an ongoing shift to passive products as people do not want to pay up to lose money.

Morningstar found 5 prior months over the last decade when investors had net withdrawals from stock mutual funds and ETFs combined, and from bond funds: 2 coincided with minor blips in long bull markets, and 3 occurred just before or in the middle of corrections or bear markets.

Read the full article at http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-avoiding-both-stocks-and-bonds-looks-bearish-for-market-2015-11-05

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The real impact of a decade of low interest rates – MarketWatch 11-05-15

Salient to Investors:

L.A. Little at Technical Analysis Today writes:

  • We have created mountains of debt to solve our existing debt problems.
  • Debt creation causes currencies to devalue and prices of most financial assets to rise for at least a while until the next country does the same.
  • Bonds are slumping just at the prospect of the Fed raising rates for the first time in a decade in December, and most likely only by 0.25%. A quarter point rise matters because almost all the trades are highly leveraged, and it is unknown how much the market will price in further rate increases.
  • While dollar strength deepens deflation, its more serious effect is on those countries, fund managers, et al that have used the cheaper dollar to go on a debt-buying binge. IIF estimates this debt doubled from 2008 to 2014 to $6.8 trillion, while non-financial corporate bonds in emerging markets tripled since 2008 to $2.6 trillion, to over 80% of GDP.

Read the full article at http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-impact-of-a-decade-of-low-interest-rates-2015-11-05?mod=MW_story_recommended_default&Link=obnetwork

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 11-01-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • Most transitions to democracy bring bitter struggles, viz South Korea, Taiwan, Chile.
  • Tunisia is almost entirely Sunni so has no sectarian and tribal differences and has had wise political leadership.
  • The end of China’s one-child policy was an admission that its greatest obstacle to long-term economic growth was its demographics.
  • The global population is twice that of 1968.
  • The Pew Research Center reports 98% of the American Association for the Advancement of Science scientists believe in evolution theory versus 65% of Americans. Ben Carson represents the height of arrogance to believe that humans can understand God’s mystery.
  • The Defense Department says that in just 20 months China reclaimed 17 times more land than Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Taiwan have claimed over the past 40 years combined.

Richard Haass at the Council on Foreign Relations said:

  • 50 US ‘so-ops’ in Syria is not the beginning of restoring Syria as a country but an effort to stabilize it to allow diplomacy to succeed. Success in Syria would be 4-6 enclaves. The US goal is not to restore Iraq or a functioning national Syria but to keep innocent people alive and the terrorists from gaining territory.
  • A Middle East where Sunnis are dominated by ISIS would not be a success for Iran, who, along with Russia, understand that Bashar al-Assad has to go eventually.

Ruchir Sharma said:

  • The UN predicts over 2 billion more people in the next 35 years, but the rich world, especially Europe, faces a population implosion. As countries develop, their birthrates plunge: work population growth that averaged nearly 2% per annum for decades is now down to 1%. Women average less than 2 children in 83 countries that account for nearly half of the global population. The fertility rate in India is down to below 3 from over 6 in 1960.
  • Countries will thrive economically only if they become immigrant-friendly or increase their fertility rate.

Ann Selzer at Selzer & Co. said

  • US political debates do matter.
  • A candidate can conquer Iowa but not a California or a Texas in a meaningful way.
  • I never make predictions because they always include a wish.

Richard Dawkins at Oxford said:

  • Evolution is a fact, as much of a fact as the Earth orbiting the Sun.  The most powerful evidence for evolution is molecular genetics.
  • That all the Republican candidates except one say they do not believe in evolution is a disgrace. Evolution is the bedrock of biology, which is the bedrock of medicine, so for Ben Carson not to understand the fundamental theory of his own subject is a terrible indictment.
  • It is arrogant to say we know what God does.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1511/01/fzgps.01.html

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