Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 09-20-15

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • The US is more dominant globally than at any point since the Clinton era, with growth almost 2 times the Eurozone and 4 times Japan, and unemployment the lowest in 7 years. European businessmen are concerned with American dominance from technology to entertainment to finance. America’s big banks are more dominant than ever.
  • WSJ says JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have increased their total value by $254.6 billion in the last 5 years versus $9.5 billion total increased value for Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, UBS and RBS.
  • Japan is the poster child for economic stagnation and political paralysis.
  • Every Western country is experiencing greater anti-immigrant feeling.
  • We should not interfere in Syria.
  • The most serious place in politics remains the center because that is where the majority is.
  • Iran will accept the nuclear deal because Rouhani is the most popular figure there and Khamenei would not want to dash the people’s enormous sense of hope and expectation.

Ruchir Sharma at Morgan Stanley said:

  • The US has emerged from the 2008 crisis better than anyone, has reduced its debt more than Europe, and has outperformed all other equity markets. 9 of the 10 most valuable companies in the world are US. The US dollar is the currency of choice.
  • China’s debt is at extremely dangerous levels.

David Frum at the Atlantic said:

  • There is no end to the huge migration of people from all over the world. Migration in moderation could strengthen Europe but it is not happening in moderation and will transform Europe.
  • You cannot neatly distinguish between refugees fleeing for their lives and immigrants fleeing for better opportunities. You cannot screen out the danger to Europe because it has come from the second generation and from radicalization caused by unemployment, alienation and the inability to assimilate.
  • Germany’s decision on migrants was emotional, not thought through and has unanticipated consequences.
  • Europe has had very bad experiences with migrants: migrants have much higher levels of long-term unemployment, much more dependency on the state, and European prisons have a disproportion of second generation migrants.
  • European governments owe their first duty to their own citizens.

Danielle Pietka at the American Enterprise Institute said:

  • Western Europe must help the migrants, and Merkel has done the right thing, but there needs to be EU wide to make sure the people passing the screening are not shoved in voiliers in Paris or Saudi-run mosques in Hamburg.
  • Russia believes the US is not going to do anything over their involvement with Syria and are there to help Assad.
  • Letting hundreds of thousands of Syrians fight and kill each other is unconscionable, especially for the most powerful and richest country in the world.

David Milband at the International Rescue Committee said:

  • It is harder to get to the United States as a refugee than under any other program.
  • Employment for refugees up to 5 years is higher than for the rest of the population.
  • Merkel is responding to the reality that 350,000 refugees had already arrived this year and that the best way to get a burden sharing arrangement was to take the lead.
  • Migrants should not be confused with refugees, who have a well-founded fear of persecution and a right to international law.
  • The danger is that Britain thinks Russia is a declining power and Russia thinks Britain is a declining power.
  • Russia’s elevated support for Assad is a sign of his weakened position from a year ago. Russia could pull the rug from under Assad because he has become a problem for Russian concern over Islamic radicalism emanating from Syria.
  • In the solution for Lebanon, every community had a stake in government, which is impossible for Syria at the moment.

 

Thomas Erdbrink at the New York Times said:

  • It is getting harder to figure what Iran’s leaders want and which direction the country is heading.
  • Iran feels it was taken to the cleaners by the nuclear deal but will accept it. The bigger issue for them is whether or not to cooperate with the US in the region. Iran is the only stable state in a divided and troubled Middle East and a weakened Saudi Arabia.

Karim Sadjadpour at the Carnegie Endowment said:

  • Both Iranian supporters and the opponents of the nuclear deal believe their supreme leader agrees with their position. In the end, Iran will accept the nuclear deal because Khamenei does not want to stand between Iranians and economic deliverance.
  • Khamenei’s MO is to wield power without accountability and have a president with accountability but without power, so he will blame Rouhani when popular expectations of the deal are not met. Khamenei has emasculated Iran’s previous 4 presidents.

Gillian Tett at the Financial Times said:

  • Despite living in a hyper-connected world, we are as fragmented, if not more so, than ever before. We fool ourselves into thinking we are no longer captive to our social and cultural rules anymore, but we are.
  • Hyper specialization produces people who cannot see opportunities or risks.
  • Sony is an example of a company filled with bright individuals who did some really dumb things. Different departments did not collaborate with each other and instead cannibalized each other. The result is we now carry iPods and not digital Walkmans.
  • Every company says it wants employees to think outside the box yet almost every company deepens and makes those boxes more rigid. In the name of streamlining everything, companies eliminate opportunities for employees to stop, think, roam mentally or collide with each other. Facebook deliberately moves employees around and recognizes that a box or a boundary can also be dangerous without stepping back to think about the social structure created.
  • Having a background in cultural anthropology helps make sense of how modern companies or modern institutions exist.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/

or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1509/20/fzgps.01.html