Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 08-16-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • The Iran nuclear agreement is flawed, but has the toughest terms ever negotiated and sets back Iran’s nuclear program more than any serious military campaign would. Automatic re-imposition of sanctions can be triggered unilaterally by the US. Iran gets sanctions relief regardless because allies will not extend sanctions as they see Iran as having produced an acceptable agreement. Rejection of the agreement would see Iran ramp up its nuclear program without inspections or constraints, sanctions unraveling, and America isolated.
  • The Chinese devaluation means its economy is slowing and the country is moving away from some reform models and towards state control and mercantilism.
  • Pew reports a median of 30% of non-Russians view the country favorably,  a median of 24% have confidence that Putin is doing the right thing in world affairs.
  • Defeating ISIS is a priority for the all the world.
  • Singapore beats the US in life expectancy, unemployment, freedom from corruption, education. The US beats Singapore in press freedom, overall freedom.
  • The US generate more than 30% of global nuclear power. Nuclear provides 19% of US electricity, 75% of French electricity.
  • Russia and Putin have very serious problems.

Jon Huntsman said:

  • China is no longer an average player in the global economy as the world’s second largest economy, so a devaluation of 2 percent will have a major impact on the region. The Chinese people have very little belief in the long-term strength and well-being of their economy – all indicators suggest it is not a very smart thing for them to invest more in the future of their country.
  • Americans have been very angry at the political class for 2 or 3 election cycles now, so Trump represents the brash, big protest vote.

Nick Butler at the Financial Times wrote:

  • Russia’s GDP will drop 3.5% in 2015 because of its dependence on oil. Trading Economics says energy provides 20% to 25% of Russia’s GDP, 30% of budget revenues, and 65% of total exports. IEA reports global oil supplies are growing at a breakneck pace.
  • The book “Restless Empire” says Russia is weaker than at almost any time in the last 300 years.

Lawrence Lessig at Harvard Law School said:

  • The problem is our government can no longer govern.
  • Climate change legislation will not pass in the US until we end corrupt campaign funding – the most unequal and corrupt system in the world and the leading issue among voters.
  • The NY Times reports that 400 families have contributed 50% of the presidential election funding so far. Wall Street is the largest contributor to congressional campaigns.

Dexter Filkins at The New Yorker said:

  • The Iraqi state is broken in 3 pieces – Shiite, Kurd, and Sunni, which has irreparably broken away. The national feeling is gone.
  • The Iraqi army, built using billions of US dollars, fell apart the moment that ISIS swept in from Syria – one push and it fell apart.

Michele Flournoy at The Center for a New American Security said Iraq’s Shia leaders must re-include the Sunnis by devolving more authority and resources down to the provinces or risk losing Iraq as a single state.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1508/16/fzgps.01.html

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