Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 03-29-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • The pattern of Yemen’s descent into chaos is likely to repeat, possibly in more significant countries like Egypt. That pattern is repressive, secular regimes backed by the West become illegitimate, become more repressive to survive, and whose opposition becomes more extreme, religious and violent.
  • Learning how to read deeply, write compelling prose, and analyze well are essential skills in order to thrive in the world. The rapid trend away from majors like English and history and philosophy to skill-based ones closer to engineering or computer science is terribly short-sighted. How to think, read, study, write and are much more useful in the long run.
  • The genius of the American system is giving people the broad liberal education that allows people to start new companies, switch careers. The coding learned 10 years ago is obsolete today.
  • US education has never tested well against other countries – in the middle of the pack in 1964 and still in the middle of the pack. Yet the US has dominated innovation, research, new industries over the past five decades.
  • Israel is reported to have more NASDAQ listed companies than any country other than the US and China yet also does very badly on international tests, and worse than the US.
  • Israel and the US share non-hierarchical educational systems where you can challenge the professor, follow your passion, ask questions. Many high-tech people including Zuckerberg and Bezos put a lot in a liberal arts education.

Richard Haass at the Council on Foreign Relations said:

  • We are in for 30 years of religious war in the Middle East, if not more, with the US having to play a modest role managing at the margins.
  • Saudi Arabia is vulnerable because it is only a matter of time before it is challenged by the Islamic State.
  • Iraq is breaking into 3 separate countries – Iranian Shia, Kurdish, and Sunni Arab.
  • We cannot afford to live in a world where Iran has nuclear weapons and several other countries in the region follow suit.

Joseph Cirincione at Ploughshares Fund said:

  • Japan is a threshold power and can build a nuclear bomb within months.
  • US strikes on Iran would have to be weeks of hundreds of sorties, and cause a major war in the Middle East that would make the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq look like warm-up acts.
  • We cannot live in a world where Iran has nuclear weapons and several other countries in the region follow suit.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali said

  • Islam is in crisis and is decidedly not a religion of peace – it needs a reformation on the scale that Christianity had in the 16th century.
  • 70 percent of all fatalities in all conflicts involving Muslims are Muslims.
  • The strategy of let’s not call IS Islamic started in the Muslim world 3 to 5 decades ago and hasn’t worked.
  • To persuade Muslims to give up the 5 core concepts within Islam that are holding them back, the US should ideologically confront Islam with its ideas of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness as it has done in the past. Theological reformation has to come from within.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript

at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1503/29/fzgps.01.html

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 03-22-15

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • The greatest vulnerability for Israel is its legal jurisdiction over 4.5 million Arabs who have neither a state nor a vote – a situation that cannot last in a democratic society.
  • The Stockholm IPRI says Israel’s defense budget is larger than that of Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon combined.
  • The UN says the US has taken in the equivalent of only .08% of its population in refugees, versus 1% for Sweden and 9% for Jordan.
  • IHS Global Defense Trade Report says the worldwide defense market rose more than 13% to a record $64 billion in 2014; Saudi Arabia overtook India as the world’s top importer and China was third.

Martin Indyk said Netanyahu has alienated just about every world leader including Israel’s closest friends Merkel and Sarkozy, by doing many things which contradict the promises that he has made them.

Elliot Abrams said the situation with Israel is the worst in a very long time because of Obama’s terrible personal attitude toward Netanyahu.

Michael Lewis said:

  • The technology is almost getting rid of Wall Street, but the resulting complexity and opacity still needs gatekeepers.
  • In the 1980s, the kind of young person who went to Wall Street changed from being one who was in the bottom of their class at Yale to one who was at the top and who can cause a lot more trouble – very bright people without a particular ambition except to be a success type.
  • Wall Street women are kept largely separate from the risk taking decisions. However, after the financial crisis, women rose to positions that were sufficiently senior that they could be plausibly blamed when things went wrong and were.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript

at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1503/22/fzgps.01.html

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 03-15-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said the NSF reports the US share of global R&D at 30%, down from 37% in 2001. China % of GDP spent on R&D is on track to surpass the US in just a few years.

Charles Bolden at NASA said a multi-planet species can survive in perpetuity; single planet species will die away.

Dr. Steward Williams at University of Louisville said we can now take an adult cell and transform it into other types of cells and will be able to print an entire heart within 10 years.

ITER says there is enough hydrogen in the ocean to power humanity with fusion for millions of years – fusion reactions do not produce any carbon emissions. China is making cables for the super conducting magnets which the US is building, and India is making the steel structure that will surround the magnets.

Michio Kaku said:

  • We have learned more about the brain in the last 10 and 15 years than in all of human history combined.
  • We can now photograph a thought and communicate it to a robot or a computer. We can see desire, self-awareness or a guilty conscience.
  • If we can upload our brains into a computer, we could outlive our frail bodies and perhaps achieve immortality.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript

at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1503/15/fzgps.01.html

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 03-08-15

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

  • Netanyahu’s alternative to the Iran nuclear deal is divorced from reality – his predictions about Iran’s nuclear threat have been wrong for 25 years.
  • Without a nuclear deal, Iran in 10 years will have 50,000 centrifuges, massive stocks of highly enriched uranium, new facilities, thousands of scientists and technicians, and a heavy water reactor that can produce plutonium.
  • Graham Allison at Harvard said the West’s maximal demands and rejection of potential agreements in negotiations with Iran in 2003 to 2005 led to Iran going from being 10 years away from producing a bomb to only months away today.
  • Expect more trouble in oil-rich countries, like crackdowns, repression and chaos, a la Venezuela.
  • Barclays says Venezuela’s debt is even riskier than Greek debt due to the nationalization of private industries and its inefficient exchange rate policy. IMF predicts that Venezuela’s economy will drop 7% in 2015.
  • In the most developed continent in the world, Europe, nationalism, conflict and even preparations for war are back in play.

Moises Naim at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says:

  • Venezuela’s elections are rigged, its judiciary run by the government, and its national assembly operates with no checks or balances.
  • Parliamentary elections won’t happen in 2015 unless the ruling party knows it will win, so expect potential riots over food shortages.

Mark Falcoff at American Enterprise Institute predicts a civil war in Venezuela because the government is polarizing and is not embarrassed to use violence.

Anne-Marie Slaughter at New America said:

  • No Iran nuclear deal would be the worst outcome because it will be seen as having been blocked by the US at the behest of Israel and the coalition to keep sanctions on Iran will fall apart as other nations will lift their sanctions, the US will be stuck with its, and Iran will progress towards a nuclear weapon.
  • The Nemtsov demonstration shows that Putin is again facing significant demonstrations at home.

Joseph Nye at Harvard said:

  • The Middle East is going through the equivalent of Europe’s 30-year war, with religious divisions, state divisions, and non-state groups all battling: it takes 2 or 3 decades for these things to work themselves out. We cannot manage this situation any more than we could have managed the French Revolution after 1789.
  • Russia is in serious decline. It is a one-crop economy, with the terrible demographic problem of fewer and fewer Russians – the average Russian male dies at age 64. Russia has rampant corruption so any attempt to reform it is blocked.
  • Declining societies are often more dangerous than rising ones – Russia is more dangerous than China. Austria and Hungary were the only major powers that really wanted WW1 because they were both in decline.

Bret Stephens at the Wall Street Journal said:

  • There is no zero hour in diplomacy, so if the current Iran nuclear deal falls through, people will regroup and rethink and with oil at half of what it was when negotiations began, more economic pressure on Iran will make them rethink.
  • The Sunset provision telling the Iranians that in 10 years they are free and clear to build a nuclear weapon is a tremendous defect and shows that the West continues to move towards the Iranian position.
  • The nuclearization side of Iran’s program only stopped in 2003 because it found itself having to choose between a nuclear program and keeping its regime.
  • Iran is economically vulnerable but is winning everywhere it looks, throughout the Middle East, helped by an absence of American will to defend US interests in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.
  • Many of Putin’s political opponents have met untimely deaths. When Russians start paying attention they will realize that their enemy is not in the West but in the Kremlin.

Peter Beinart at City University of New York said:

  • Whether oil prices stay low or stay strong, it would be impossible to return to the current sanctions’ coalition, build a much stronger one, or retard the progress Iran will make in the interim.
  • Iran has a very nasty, brutal, malevolent regime but it is not ISIS and is a country with the capacity to become a stable democracy – 20,000 Jews now live in Iran with 11 functioning synagogues. Most Americans believe that Iran and ISIS are dissimilar threats to the US.
  • Russia is a brutal regime.

Hans Rosling at Karolinska Institute said:

  • In the last 20 years, the percentage of people living in extreme poverty in the US and Sweden halved.
  • 80% of the world’s 1-yr-old kids have got measles vaccines.
  • The most important change in the world is the size of families, and follows child survival, education for girls, getting out of poverty.
  • Europe’s family size has gone from 6 in 1800 to below replacement level today and its population is now decreasing even despite immigration. Asia and America’s family sizes have fallen to 2, and half of India has 2 children or less. Africa is down to 4.5.
  • The UN predicts that by 2050, Europe’s population we be the same, America’s almost the same, and both Asia and Africa will increase 1 billion.
  • By 2100, the populations in America and Europe will be the same, there will no more increase in Asia, and two more in Africa. There will be twice as many people in Africa as in the Americas and Europe combined, and 80 percent of the world population will live in Asia and Africa.

Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler said:

  • 1,000 years ago you had to be the king or the queen to affect a country or region, 100 years ago you had to be the industrialist or rubber baron, and today anyone can.
  • The 1.8 billion people online in 2010 will increase to potentially 7 billion in the next 5 years.
  • Twitter and apps democratize the power for anybody to make a living
  • $15 billion in 2015 in crowd funding will increase to $100 billion.
  • What matters in successful entrepreneurship is how big is the idea, because everything else is basically the same.
  • To become a billionaire, help a billion people.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript

at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1503/08/fzgps.01.html

Newly minted MBA? It’s the best job market in years – BBC Capital 03-02-15

Salient to Investors:

Business schools are reporting strong markets for graduating students in full-time jobs.

Barbara Hewitt at Wharton said only 4.2% of last year’s graduating class of seniors were still seeking employment 4 to 6 months after graduation, among their lowest percentages in the last 20 years, while 2015’s figure is likely to be similar.

The Graduate Management Admission Council said 9 in 10 companies surveyed that intend to hire MBA candidates say they will bring on as many, or even more people in 2015 than in 2014, while more than 50% plan to increase starting annual salaries – nearly two-thirds said their companies were growing.

Read the full article at http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20150227-bull-market-for-us-business-grads

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