Obama Stocks Among Best After Re-Election as Rally Tested – Bloomberg 11-11-13

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Chad Morganlander at Stifel Nicolaus said the market is fairly valued at best and will require an improving economic and earnings outlook well above where we stand.

S&P say the S&P 500 has not fallen more than 10 percent since October 2011, the longest stretch without such a drop since 2007.

Mark Luschini at Janney Montgomery Scott said the market is richly valued, but suggests that return assumptions for US equities going forward should be much more muted.

Bloomberg and Birinyi Associates said 9 of the last 12 bull markets have ended in 5 years or less.

At the start of 2013, Wall Street strategists forecast the S&P 500 would rally 7.6 percent to 1,534 by year’s end: the index surpassed that level on March 5 before rising another 15 percent.

James Paulsen at Wells Capital Mgmt said the first year after elections is usually not very good but time is mightily different because the Fed is doing a totally unconventional thing here.

Lawrence Creatura at Federated Investors said gains can continue for a long time as interest rates are likely to remain low for the next year and profits are forecast to keep climbing. Creatura said there is no law that says how long a bull market has to last.

Walter Todd at Greenwood Capital Associates earnings growth has been slowing so with monetary policy things like tapering it is going to be harder to keep going higher.

2013’s 24 percent jump in the S&P 500 is the 3rd largest annual rally after a president was returned to office since the 1930s, behind Clinton and Reagan, and the broadest rally ever.

The length of this bull market exceeds the average by almost a year, valuations are up 18 percent in 2013 to 16.8 times earnings, and the prospect of Fed tapering clouds the outlook for further gains under Obama.

S&P 500 earnings beat analyst estimates by 4.1 percent in Q3. Analysts project earnings will climb 10 percent in 2014 and 2015.

The median analyst predicts the Fed will begin tapering in March 2014 and GDP to fall to 2 percent growth in Q4.

The average Wall Street strategist predicts the S&P 500 will fall 2.4 percent to 1,728 before the end of 2013.

Read the full article at  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-11/obama-stocks-among-best-after-re-election-as-bull-market-tested.html

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