Europe Growing Again Means Boost for Global Economy – Bloomberg 08-12-13

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Joseph Lupton at JPMorgan Chase is not expecting a boom in Europe, but sees a momentum shift in markets and the world economy, citing a change in perception from no way out of the crisis to seeing growth. Lupton says the euro area is 1/5 of global GDP. Lupton said a 1 percent improvement in Europe will offset the drag of China’s slowdown, with likely winners including the UK, eastern Europe, Taiwan, Mexico and Brazil.

JPMorgan Chase forecasts the euro-area economy will grow 1.3 percent in 2014 after shrinking 0.5 percent in 2013.  Economists expect growth of only 1 percent in 2014 versus 2.7 percent in the US

Ewen Cameron Watt at BlackRock says European companies with exposure to their own region’s economies are exceeding earnings expectations, supporting equities, while Europe is clearly stabilizing.

Credit Suisse’s index of 19 European stocks that should outpace the rest of the market if the expansion speeds up is up 25 percent in 2013 versus 7 percent for the Euro Stoxx 50 Index.

Huw Pill at Goldman Sachs sees a relatively shallow, saucer-shaped recovery in Europe and not strong enough to turn the euro region into a major engine for international growth because it will remain a net exporter during the next two years as peripheral economies continue to pare public and private-sector debts and refocus their economies toward trade. Goldman Sachs says exports have grown faster than imports in recent years, leaving the euro area’s trade surplus around 3 percent of GDP in Q1, the most since the euro began trading in 1999.

Nick Kounis at ABN Amro Bank said Euro area growth alone will be a boon to the world after 3 years of drag on global growth, though the main driver will be the US.

Christian Schulz at Berenberg Bank said even if demand stays soft, the escape from the depths of the debt crisis will be enough to rally financial sentiment worldwide. A Bank of America survey of fund managers in July found just 14 percent citing Europe as the biggest risk, versus 59 percent in July 2012 and 56 percent who now worry about a hard landing in China.

Julian Callow at Barclays said emerging markets including China and Brazil are slowing, having propelled the world out of its recession, while the euro area will face a lot of international pressure to import more.

Europe unemployment is at 12.1 percent, the highest on record: over 25 percent in Spain and Greece.

Nicholas Spiro at Spiro Sovereign Strategy said the economic mood in the euro zone is at least brightening,  though fledgling recoveries risk being snuffed out if political paralysis undermines confidence.

Read the full article at  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-12/europe-growing-again-means-boost-for-global-economy.html

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