Is an Aging Bull Market Seeking a Correction? – Bloomberg BusinessWeek 03-27-13

Salient to Investors:

InvesTech Research say it has been 18 months since the S&P 500 had a 10 percent correction. Leuthold Group said only 7 of the 22 bull runs since 1900 have lasted four years; of which 5 lasted at least an additional year. The 1920s bull rose 500 percent over 8 years before 1929.

Doug Ramsey at Leuthold Group said another month of gains might lure in more of the fence-sitters and set up a ‘Sell In May and Go Away’ scenario. Ramsey said we are in the Year of the Snake – the only one of the 12 animal years to historically post negative returns.

The S&P 500 is at 15.4 times earnings versus the average 19.9 in bull markets since 1962 and less than any record high since 1980. The cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE, which predicted big downturns in 1929, 1999, and 2008, is at 23 versus a median P/E ratio of 16 since the late 1800s and 44 in 1999.

ICI says individual investors have added almost $20 billion to US stock funds in 2013 – 3.5 percent of their equity withdrawals since 2007.

Read the full article at http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-27/is-an-aging-bull-market-seeking-a-correction#r=rss

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