Telling Lies From Statistics – The Wall Street Journal 09-24-12

Salient to Investors:

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com says to improve our ability to forecast, avoid overconfidence and become Bayesians

Burton Makiel said earnings multiples were elevated in the early 1990s yet the 1990s produced extraordinarily generous equity returns. Earnings multiples were even higher in December 1996 yet the stock market rallied sharply until March 2000.

Read the full article at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444554704577644031670158646.html?KEYWORDS=nate+silver