China Slowdown Seen Longer Than in Crisis by State Economist – Bloomberg 09-20-12

Salient to Investors:

Yuan Gangming at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said:

  • China’s economic slowdown may last longer than during the global financial crisis and extend into Q1 2013; aggravated by unsustainable local-government spending plans
  • Medium and small-sized businesses are finding it increasingly hard to borrow from banks
  • China’s target for 14 percent growth in M2 too low to accommodate accelerated growth

UBS, Morgan Stanley and Barclays predict growth will sink to a 22-year low of 7.5 percent this year. Bloomberg surveyed economists expect growth of 7.4 percent Q3, 7.7 percent in Q4, and 7.9 percent in Q1 2013.

The S&P 500 is up 22 percent in the past year versus a decline of 17 percent in the Shanghai Composite Index.

Read the full article at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-21/china-slowdown-seen-longer-than-2009-by-government-researcher.html