Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 06-05-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakari said:

Remains skeptical of an American military solution to Syria.

The US is no longer the world’s humanitarian leader and has become an international embarrassment.

The UN says 4 in 10 people do not have access to adequate sanitation and that every dollar spent on sanitation produces a return of $9. Water Aid says over 770 million Indians and 329 million Chinese do not have access to a toilet at home.

Richard Haass at the Council on Foreign Relations said the US has more often than not benefited from interventions in the world: mistakes have been self-inflicted, viz Vietnam, Iraq.

Ruchir Sharma at Morgan Stanley Investment Banking said:

Since 2009, the number of billionaires has risen 80%, equally distributed. The US has had one of the biggest increases in billionaire wealth to 15% of GDP versus the historical norm of 10% due to easy money producing one of the strongest stock market gains in history. The rich own stocks in a disproportionate manner.

The public mood against wealth turns negative when that wealth is being created in corruption-prone industries in countries like Russia and Mexico.

More than 50% of billionaires in India inherited their wealth. The US ranks OK on this metric which is why Trump is able to run for office.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1606/05/fzgps.01.html

Click here to receive free and immediate email alerts of the latest forecasts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 05-29-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakari said:

The US has re-enforced its position as the world’s leading economic, technological, military and political power, and energy superpower.

The US dominates virtually all leading industries including social networks, mobile telecom, nano and bio technology.

The US is at the cutting edge of green technology.

The US is demographically vibrant, while all its major economic peers, including Japan, Europe and China, face certain population decline.

The US dominates the military and political world. The US has 10 aircraft carriers versus China’s one secondhand Ukrainian ship. The US counts numerous allies while China has only North Korea.

The US will not have a real rival for a very long time. However, China’s share of global GDP in 1990 was 1.7% versus 15% today, and developing countries accounted for 20% of world GDP in 1990 versus 40% today.

China’s global influence is large and growing – able to create the Asian infrastructure investment bank over US objections. Regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey are rising.

Joshua Cooper Ramo says the US dominates all 9 global tech platforms, including Google Chrome, Facebook, and Microsoft Office.

Stephen Brooks and William Wohlforth say that China is the US’s only rising rival, but only when it comes to GDP: half its exports are imported for assembly and re-exported.

Bret Stephens at the Wall Street Journal said Donald Trump is the biggest loser in presidential history, manifestly unqualified to be president in any way.

Pro Publica says apartheid schools (schools with 1% or fewer white students) more than doubled since 1988 to 6,727 schools in 2011. GAO reports K-12 public schools with extremely high percentages of poor, black or Hispanic kids comprised 16% in 2013-2014 versus 9% in 2000-2001.

Paul Tractenberg at Rutgers says that between 2000 and 2013, the number of Americans living in high poverty neighborhoods rose from 7.2 million to 13.8 million.

Rucker Johnson at Berkeley said:

More than 1 in 4 poor blacks live in extreme poverty neighborhoods versus 1 in 13 for poor whites.

Blacks that attended desegregated elementary schools were more likely to graduate and 22% less likely to be incarcerated as adults. Blacks who spent 5 years in desegregated schools saw their health improved to the equivalence of being 7 years younger, and earned 30% more than those not attending desegregated schools.

The narrowing of the achievement gap and increased success of black students had no negative effect on whites on any metric.

Reid Hoffman at LinkedIn said:

The cost of sequencing the genome is falling faster than Moore’s Law.

The US has a unique advantage not in start-up culture but in blitz scaling. The majority of the super interesting tech companies are on the west coast, primarily Silicon Valley, an area 25 square miles with 8.5 million people.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1605/29/fzgps.01.html

Click here to receive free and immediate email alerts of the latest forecasts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 05-22-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

US start-up activity has been slowing for about 30 years, dropping sharply over the last 10 years.

High taxes did not stop the burst of start-ups in the 1970s and early ’80s, and California’s taxes and regulation do not deter its vibrant entrepreneurial activity.

The Economist says the US has become less competitive in the last 20 years as red tape, licensing requirements and legal costs have risen dramatically. Large, entrenched firms are able to navigate regulations much better than new ones.

Leigh Buchanan says the percentage of start-ups launched by people in their 20s and 30s fell from 35% in 1996 to 18 percent in 2014, while the number of founders in their 50s and 60s has increased over the past decade.

Peter Bergen said terrorist groups will do well in the Middle East and in Europe for the foreseeable future.

George Shultz at Stanford said we live in a very dangerous time: instability almost everywhere, too many nuclear weapons, climate change.

The Federation of American Scientists estimated 15,350 nuclear weapons in early 2016, versus 70,300 30 years ago.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1605/22/fzgps.01.html

Click here to receive free and immediate email alerts of the latest forecasts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 05-15-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

Iraq is collapsing as a country.

Nation-building has failed in the Middle East.

Only 19% of millennials say they support capitalism.

Joshua Cooper Ramo at Kissinger Associates said that since 1951, 75 wall-like structures have been built around the world: 80% of them in the last 10 years.

Rana Foroohar said finance represents 4% of America’s jobs but 25% of corporate profits.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1605/15/fzgps.01.html

Click here to receive free and immediate email alerts of the latest forecasts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 05-08-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

Trump has formidable marketing skills but commerce is different from government. FDR, LBJ and Reagan achieved the most with virtually no commercial background. George W. Bush and Herbert Hoover, despite commercial backgrounds performed much worse as Presidents.

Robert Rubin said the single overriding objective in business is to make a profit, but government has to deal with many legitimate and often competing objectives. Rubin said not even the president has the kind of authority every CEO does.

Dan Senor said that Trump will lose in November, and that history shows that parties can bounce back.

David Frum at the Atlantic said:

An immense wreck is coming: political and cultural.

Trump has a terrible work ethic, is unfit and dangerous to be President.

Globalization’s losers have to be more fairly compensated by the winners.

Ross Douthat at The New York Times said:

Returning to a conservative normalcy is unlikely given Trump.

Nationalism is resurgent around the world for understandable reasons: dislocation, globalization, terrorism, Successful politicians, especially conservative politicians, have to address that anxiety.

Emily Miller at Washington Times said:

What happened is the people decided the Republican nominee, not Washington, not New York.

The country is unfamiliar with the depth of Trump’s policies.

Trump has the temperament to be president: thoughtful, calm, direct, listens very well.

David Order at MIT found that between 2002 and 2010, congressional districts negatively impacted by trade with China were more likely to elect more ideologically extreme representatives, either left or right of the officials they replaced – benefiting conservatives much more than liberals.

A Gallup poll found that 58% percent of Americans view foreign trade as an opportunity, 34% see it as a threat.

Yanis Varoufakis said:

Europe is in deep crisis and falling apart. The EU is heading for a break up, and new borders are being erected.

Instead of banking union, countries are re-nationalizing debt. The probability of losing your money in an Italian bank is increasing, in a German bank decreasing.

Bassem Youssef said:

The West mistakenly believes that it is better to deal with a military regime than a religious one. Military and religious factions work hand in hand.

All authoritarian regimes need to fall back on a reason for failure.

The IMF predicts:

US GDP to grow 2.4% in 2016.

Venezuelan GDP to contract 8% in 2016, and inflation to rise to 720% in 2016 and to 2,200% in 2017.

Myanmar’s GDP to 8.6% in 2016, the world’s best.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1605/08/fzgps.01.html

Click here to receive free and immediate email alerts of the latest forecasts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 05-01-16

Salient to Investors:

Parag Khanna said

America ultimately benefits from trade agreements.

Economists world-wide consider Mexico to be a hot emerging market.

The union of Canada, the US and Mexico is becoming more integrated and more productive than even the EU – a continental super power on an unrivaled scale.

China has twice as many countries with which it is the number one trading partner than America.

Connectedness is an extremely important way of measuring the leverage that a country can have.

In 10 years there will be more trade, more travel, more openness, more globalization.

 

The WHO says malaria mortality rates have fallen by 60% globally since 2000, and 21 countries will be malaria free in the next 5 years.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1605/01/fzgps.01.html

Click here to receive free and immediate email alerts of the latest forecasts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 04-24-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said Saudi Arabia is responsible for the spread of extremist interpretation of Islam and has created a Frankenstein monster that threatens itself as much as the West.

Gregory Gause said Saudi Arabia lost control over the global extremist Islamic movement in the 1980s and has been its target since the 1990s.

David Petraeus said Saudi Arabia switched from a tacit supporter to an aggressive foe of jihadi groups.

Fred Kaplan at Slate said terrorists could not shut down the power grid over the US or an entire region because of decentralization, but could shut down, say, the Eastern Seaboard for some time. Kaplan said 20 countries have cyber units in their military.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1604/17/fzgps.01.html

Click here to receive free and immediate email alerts of the latest forecasts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 04-17-16

Salient to Investors:

IEA predicts coal consumption in OECD countries will fall 40% by 2040.

Julia Ioffe at Foreign Policy said:

The Saudi regime is in no danger of collapse and is still a strong US ally.

What is happening in Brazil is a sign of healthy cleansing, unlike Russia, where what the Panama papers revealed is far worse that anything Brazil has done. Russian courts will never go after the corrupt, but instead will pursue the corruption fighters.

Ed Luce at The Financial Times said Islamophobia is not weakening democracy but weakening constitutional liberalism.

Brett Stephens at The Wall Street Journal said:

Saudi Arabia could collapse should low oil prices continue, ISIS expanded into Saudi Arabia, the bad war with Yemen, and especially should the current trio of leaders fails.

Brexit would mean Scotland would try to leave Britain and join Europe.

Islamophobia is part of the poison of low growth. Contrast Germany which was able to absorb huge Muslim immigration during the post-war era of 3%-4% growth.

Brazil is the country of the future and always will be.

Gideon Rose at Foreign Affairs said:

Saudi Arabia has internal legitimacy, relatively good finances, strong control over their territory.

Vice President Temer of Brazil is not a particularly strong replacement if President Dilma goes, so no dramatic change or recovery soon.

Brazil’s problems will not destroy the world economy overall.

Julia Rozovsky at Google said their most effective teams all possess psychological safety, i.e. team members can take a risk without fearing being shot down or ridiculed.

Charles Duhigg at The New York Times said:

Researcher Amy Edmondson found that physiological safety has two components: first, the team has to feel like everyone could speak equality and second, the team exhibits social sensitivity, i.e. listening skills.

Saturday Night Live – a team of egomaniacal comedians and writers who for most of their lives hated other people – succeeded because Lorne Michaels forces everyone in team meetings to say something.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1604/17/fzgps.01.html

Click here to receive free and immediate email alerts of the latest forecasts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 04-10-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

 

 

In 2015, Gabriel Zukman at Berkeley estimated the wealth held in tax havens was at least $7.6 trillion, or 8% of all household wealth: higher proportion in developing countries, 20%-30% in many Latin American and African nations, and up to 50% in Russia.

Americans need not go offshore to keep their finances secret. Matthew Gardener at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy said the Tax Justice Network ranked the US the third worst offender for financial secrecy. It is easier to set up a secretive shell company in Delaware and Nevada than in the Cayman Islands.

Robert Gordon said:

The lack of recent real innovation and productivity has stifled the middle class. Since 1970, the invention of the computer, communications, mobile phones have been a much smaller part of human existence than the great inventions of the early 20th century. The invention of electricity, the light bulb, the internal combustion engine and air travel, far outweighs the invention of the Internet, cell phone, mapping of the human genome.

The way our offices work has been static since 2005 as productivity has grown at only 0.5% per year for the past 6 years.

The house in 1870 was completely isolated, but by 1940, had electricity, gas, telephone, running water and sewage removal. In 1890, the chances of a baby dying was 22% in the first year but by 1950 had fallen below 1%.

New York City is only possible because of electric elevators.

The 14 million new jobs created since the recession was over are disproportionately low-paying, service sector, restaurants, retail, temporary help jobs, while we have permanently lost jobs in manufacturing and construction.

Andrew McAfee said:

The 1880s to 1910s was an extraordinary period of transformation. We are on the cusp of a similar transformation, enabling the majority of humans to access and contribute to much of the world’s accumulated knowledge.

Advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning will spread quickly because of cloud computing and because of demand, and will rewrite how much of white-collar work is done.

You cannot be pessimistic about jobs and pessimistic about technology because the headwinds from jobs and wages exist because of tech progress.

Arianna Huffington said:

A full night’s sleep, 7 to 9 hours for most people, helps you live a fully active life without stress, and with more joy, creativity and better decision-making.

Sleep before the Industrial Revolution was revered.

Trump displays all the symptoms of chronic sleep deprivation: inability to process even simple information, mood swings, irritability, trouble listening to others, paranoid tendencies, constant regurgitating of pabulum.

 

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1604/10/fzgps.01.html

Click here to receive free and immediate email alerts of the latest forecasts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 04-03-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

The Islamic State is the ultimate gang, celebrating violence for its own sake.

Phil Mudd at CNN said:

The facts show we do not have a significant terror problem in the US.

What is happening now is more a cult than religious extremism.

David Remnick at The New Yorker said:

There is a worldwide distrust of democratic norms, and anxiety about immigrants. The browning of the US is happening throughout Europe because of Middle East immigration.

Ted Cruz will not win because he is unattractive and people cannot stand him – his support is from people fearful of Trump.

E.J. Dionne at The Washington Post said:

Contemporary American conservatism is a history of disappointment and betrayal, of promises to win support from their base that were not kept.

White working-class voters, a linchpin of the Republican coalition since Nixon in 1972 or Reagan in 1980, have almost nothing to show for their support materially; their living standards have fallen.

Trump represents a peculiar ‘Europeanization’ of American politics and which is ultimately partly why he will be unsuccessful in the long run.

Geoffrey Kabaservice said

An eruption of populist sentiment is behind ‘Trump’.  Real wages for blue-collar workers have been flat since 1970, versus double between 1940 and 1970.

Most political parties in American history have been coalitions of interests, while ideological parties are no more stable.

 

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1604/03/fzgps.01.html

Click here to receive free and immediate email alerts of the latest forecasts.