Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 04-10-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

 

 

In 2015, Gabriel Zukman at Berkeley estimated the wealth held in tax havens was at least $7.6 trillion, or 8% of all household wealth: higher proportion in developing countries, 20%-30% in many Latin American and African nations, and up to 50% in Russia.

Americans need not go offshore to keep their finances secret. Matthew Gardener at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy said the Tax Justice Network ranked the US the third worst offender for financial secrecy. It is easier to set up a secretive shell company in Delaware and Nevada than in the Cayman Islands.

Robert Gordon said:

The lack of recent real innovation and productivity has stifled the middle class. Since 1970, the invention of the computer, communications, mobile phones have been a much smaller part of human existence than the great inventions of the early 20th century. The invention of electricity, the light bulb, the internal combustion engine and air travel, far outweighs the invention of the Internet, cell phone, mapping of the human genome.

The way our offices work has been static since 2005 as productivity has grown at only 0.5% per year for the past 6 years.

The house in 1870 was completely isolated, but by 1940, had electricity, gas, telephone, running water and sewage removal. In 1890, the chances of a baby dying was 22% in the first year but by 1950 had fallen below 1%.

New York City is only possible because of electric elevators.

The 14 million new jobs created since the recession was over are disproportionately low-paying, service sector, restaurants, retail, temporary help jobs, while we have permanently lost jobs in manufacturing and construction.

Andrew McAfee said:

The 1880s to 1910s was an extraordinary period of transformation. We are on the cusp of a similar transformation, enabling the majority of humans to access and contribute to much of the world’s accumulated knowledge.

Advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning will spread quickly because of cloud computing and because of demand, and will rewrite how much of white-collar work is done.

You cannot be pessimistic about jobs and pessimistic about technology because the headwinds from jobs and wages exist because of tech progress.

Arianna Huffington said:

A full night’s sleep, 7 to 9 hours for most people, helps you live a fully active life without stress, and with more joy, creativity and better decision-making.

Sleep before the Industrial Revolution was revered.

Trump displays all the symptoms of chronic sleep deprivation: inability to process even simple information, mood swings, irritability, trouble listening to others, paranoid tendencies, constant regurgitating of pabulum.

 

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1604/10/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 04-03-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

The Islamic State is the ultimate gang, celebrating violence for its own sake.

Phil Mudd at CNN said:

The facts show we do not have a significant terror problem in the US.

What is happening now is more a cult than religious extremism.

David Remnick at The New Yorker said:

There is a worldwide distrust of democratic norms, and anxiety about immigrants. The browning of the US is happening throughout Europe because of Middle East immigration.

Ted Cruz will not win because he is unattractive and people cannot stand him – his support is from people fearful of Trump.

E.J. Dionne at The Washington Post said:

Contemporary American conservatism is a history of disappointment and betrayal, of promises to win support from their base that were not kept.

White working-class voters, a linchpin of the Republican coalition since Nixon in 1972 or Reagan in 1980, have almost nothing to show for their support materially; their living standards have fallen.

Trump represents a peculiar ‘Europeanization’ of American politics and which is ultimately partly why he will be unsuccessful in the long run.

Geoffrey Kabaservice said

An eruption of populist sentiment is behind ‘Trump’.  Real wages for blue-collar workers have been flat since 1970, versus double between 1940 and 1970.

Most political parties in American history have been coalitions of interests, while ideological parties are no more stable.

 

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1604/03/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 03-20-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

Trump’s nomination would transform the Republican party into a blue-collar populist, nationalist movement with a racial element, like many others in the West.

The Federation of American Scientists says Pakistan has the fastest growing nuclear arsenal – up as much as 44% in the last 4 years – and could have 251 warheads by 2025, the 5th largest stockpile in the world ahead of Great Britain.

The IEA says that 90% of new global electrical generation in 2015 came from renewable sources, of which more than 50% came from wind power. China has reduced its coal usage by 10% in just 4 years to under 70% of its total electricity.

Richard Haass at the Council on Foreign Relations said the era of consolidated nation states in the Middle East where governments hold sway over the entire territory is ending.

Thomas Frank said

Both US political parties have abandoned the working class and become the party of elites, and have stopped caring deeply about economic inequality. Inequality has worsened under Obama.

Broadly speaking, the Republican party is becoming a blue-collar populist nationalist party while the Democratic party is becoming the party of urban professionals.

Tom Wainwright at The Economist said:

Incarcerating drug dealers in the US and Europe only reduces supply and pushes up prices, while addictive consumption remains constant, thus inflating the size of the drug market and enriching the drug cartels.

Drugs should be legalized, one by one. Legalized marijuana has greatly reduced the criminal economy in places like Colorado and deals a huge blow to organized crime. Legalized heroin in Switzerland means addicts no longer have to steal or deal.

Piers Sellers said that overshooting the 2-degree global warming is a near certainty because of the momentum of the global economy, and solutions will be implemented later than scientists would like, as usual.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1603/20/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 03-13-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

The US economy will grow much faster than the eurozone and almost 3x as fast as Japan’s in 2016.

The Financial Times says America’s top 5 investment banks in 2015 made twice as much money as European banks and bettered them on almost every financial measure.

UBS says America ranked 5th of countries best able to take advantage of the fourth industrial revolution.

Lawrence Summers says:

The fundamental US economic problem is the lack of demand, too much savings and too little consumption. The best solution is a major boost in infrastructure spending.

Future generations will be better off owing long-term bonds at low rates in a currency they can print than they would be inheriting a vast, deferred maintenance liability.

Adam Gopnik at the New Yorker said it is important to see Trump as primarily a nationalist and not a fascist.

Gideon Rachman at the Financial Times said the fear of Trump is overdone, a la Reagan, but his temperament, style and extreme touchiness is a concern.

Valentine Pasquali at Global Finance and Aspen Institute said the striking parallels between Trump and Berlusconi go well beyond politics – Berlusconi’s bad legacy has shaken Italians’ trust in their institutions.

Yascha Mounk at Harvard and New America said people no longer trust any politician: and the most dangerous thing about Trump is not his radical policies or dangerous ideology but that his only course is himself, which makes him willing to do anything.

Eric Foner at Columbia University said American politics has always had demagoguery but egotism run amok is a new low in US political debates.

Barry Strauss at Cornell said:

The death of Julius Caesar was a turning point, an opportunity for the ‘America’ of the world at that time, Rome, to reform.

Caesar had more power, money, army than anyone before in Rome, and was a genius, smarter than anyone, and a great general, politician and author – a rarity.

Caesar’s assassination was well planned by top Roman generals, and succeeded partly because he did not believe it; showing politics always trumps military thinking, and you must always have a political plan.

Jonathan Weiler at UNC said:

The American political polarization of the last 30 years is driven at the grass-roots level by differences in personality among voters.

How people answer parenting questions tells us how they see the world politically much better than gender, income, education.

White, working-class voters who are low on authoritarianism dislike Trump, while college-educated voters who are high on authoritarianism like him a lot.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1603/13/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 03-06-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

A main cause of the rise of Islamic extremism is the cowardice of Muslim moderates.

The cyber war arms race is exploding, potentially more destructive than anything before.

Paul Krugman at the New York Times said:

We don’t know why economic recovery has been slow since the end of the Clinton boom.

Since saving the banks, everything has been moving in the wrong direction.

Vigorous public spending would work even better than tax cuts, which might not be spent, and we already have too much saving and too few private investment opportunities. The federal government can borrow for 30 years at 3 percent: adjusted for inflation, practically nothing.

Since 2007, construction spending has collapsed because states and municipalities have been financially strapped and because of the anti-public spending ideology, which is insane fundamentally.

Many advanced countries including the US have had higher debt ratios without anything terrible happening.

 

Phil Mudd says America’s civilian infrastructure is disturbingly vulnerable to cyber-terrorism.

Vali Nasr at Johns Hopkins said:

Iran’s election result was a humiliation for conservatives, not a victory for liberals but for Rouhani’s centrists who support engagement with the outside world and the nuclear deal.

Anti-Americanism is a pillar of Iran’s official state ideology so will take a very long time to go away.

Thomas Erdbrink at the New York Times said the Iranian election result was a big win for reformist, moderate, centrists over the hard-liners who have been in power for at least for the past decade.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1603/06/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 02-28-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said:

David Miliband says both left- and right-wing revolts stem from globalization: the right has no answer to globalization eroding people’s identities, while the left has no answer to globalization exacerbating inequality.

The US will not build a wall nor deport 11 million people nor ban all Muslims entering it, nor will Britain leave the EU.

Mother Jones said in 2014 that the average gun homicide costs taxpayers nearly $400,000.

Michael Hayden said America is safer with unbreakable end-to-end encryption.

 

 

 

Bill Gates said global warming is real, man-made and an urgent problem.

 

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1602/28/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 02-21-16

Salient to Investors:

Fareed Zakaria said that in the next few years, 1 billion Indians will get access to the Internet, most for the first time.

Tom Friedman at the New York Times said:

A EU fracture would be a negative strategic trend for the US.

Putin looks for sugar highs to distract from the radically shrinking Russian economy.

When the price of oil is low, freedom eventually flourishes.

James Fallows at the Atlantic said:

America is basically a big forest in the east, a big farm in the middle, and a big desert and mountain range in the west.

The seeds of a second reform age are being sown around the US, just as the first Gilded Age led to reforms.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1602/21/fzgps.01.html

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 02-14-16

Fareed Zakaria said:

The Heritage Foundation ranks America 11th in Economic Freedom, behind Canada, Australia, Ireland, New Zealand, Chile, Switzerland and Singapore.

American exceptionalism from the start was based on ideas open to all. Gordon Wood said Americans lack a nationality like other countries, and is why it can more easily absorb immigrants.

Rand Corp says that were Russia to attack the Baltic States, it would win fast because it has far more firepower and manpower in the region.

Michael Chertoff at Chertoff Group said radical violent jihadism has metastasized from South Asia and the Middle East to North and East Africa and Europe.

Peter Bergen at CNN said:

The only worse thing to a dictator is anarchy.

Historically, revolutionary movements tend to attract idealistic, mostly young men, who are not terribly impoverished. Becoming radicalized is not for illiterates.

Rana Faroohar at CNN said:

A global recession is coming: historically we get one every 8 years.

The two major economic forces are slowing emerging markets and the end of easy money: the Fed will not pump more into the global economy.

Market jitters will continue for some time.

Martin Wolf at the Financial Times said:

The global economy will grow below potential in 2016 but a recession is very unlikely, not in the major economies and especially not in China. The countries in real difficulty are too small to cause negative global growth.

Business people do not understand the overall economic system.

The Fed tightened too soon. The fundamental problem is the equilibrium rate.

 

Alec Ross said:

The story of the next 20 years is going to build on the story of the last 20 years, namely digitization.

Advances in hardware and material sciences and artificial intelligence will create entirely new trillion-dollar industries. The last trillion-dollar industry was created out of computer code, the next out of genetic code.

We are 3 or 4 years from the revolution in life sciences.

Robots in the cartoons and movies of the 1970s will become reality in the 2020s. The huge breakthroughs in mathematics in the last 18 months are making once complex robotic tasks possible.

Cloud robotics means we do not have to build million-dollar robots to get remarkably sophisticated AI.

In the past, automation and robotics replaced blue-collar labor but AI combined with new automation technologies will replace low-level white-collar work; as with buying and selling a home.

65% of jobs for children entering primary school today don’t presently exist, so the most important job is parenting.

Computer coders have a few decades’ worth of guaranteed employment in front of them.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ , listen at http://podcast.cnn.com/fareed-zakaria-gps/episode/all/TkwD3eujmTzNlz/fzgps-2016-02-14.html or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1602/14/fzgps.01.html

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The World’s Favorite New Tax Haven Is the United States – Bloomberg 01-27-16

Salient to Investors:

The US is emerging as a leading tax and secrecy haven for rich foreigners because it is resisting new global disclosure standards. The US is one of only a few countries left actively promoting accounts that will remain secret from overseas authorities – with Bahrain, Nauru, and Vanuatu.

Andrew Penney at Rothschild said the US is effectively the biggest tax haven in the world.

Confidential accounts that hide wealth protect against kidnappings or extortion in their owners’ home countries.

Gabriel Zucman at Berkeley said Swiss banks hold $1.9 trillion in assets not reported by account holders in their home countries.

The UN estimates at least $1.6 trillion in illicit funds are laundered through the global financial system each year.

Read the full article at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-27/the-world-s-favorite-new-tax-haven-is-the-united-states

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Fareed Zakaria GPS – CNN 01-24-16

Fareed Zakaria said:

Lower oil prices are generally good for all countries except the major oil producers, but the size and speed of this drop could produce a credit crisis and deflationary spiral.

In periods like the present, open systems do better than closed ones. America’s transparency forces it to tackle its problems.

Sweden: Euro Monitor says that in 2015, 11% of the value of consumer transactions were made with cash versus 42% worldwide. The KTH Royal Institute of Technology says currency in circulation dropped by 25% in the last 6 years. Credit Suisse said between 2010 and 2012 over 500 Swedish bank branches went cashless and 900 cash machines were removed. The Swedish Bankers Assn says bank robberies in Sweden dropped from 110 in 2008 to 7 in 2015. The New York Times says e-fraud in Sweden more than doubled in 2015 versus 10 years ago.

The IAEA says that Iran has destroyed 98% of its enriched uranium and rendered inoperable its plutonium pathway – far more substantial than most military experts believed would have resulted from military strikes.

The World Economic Forum says that by 2050, the world’s oceans will contain more plastic than fish by weight and says the greatest global risk is the failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Watch the video at http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/category/gps-episodes/ , listen at http://podcast.cnn.com/fareed-zakaria-gps/episode/all/TkwD3eujmTzNlz/fzgps-2016-01-17.html or read the full transcript at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1601/17/fzgps.01.html

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